SWODY3
SPC AC 240726
DAY 3 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0126 AM CST MON JAN 24 2011
VALID 261200Z - 271200Z
...FLORIDA...
AN UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH OVER THE ERN GULF OF MEXICO WEDNESDAY MORNING
IS FORECAST TO MOVE EWD ACROSS THE FL PENINSULA DURING THE
AFTERNOON. THE AXIS OF A STRONG LOW-LEVEL JET SHOULD BE LOCATED
ACROSS THE SRN HALF OF THE PENINSULA WHERE THUNDERSTORMS MAY BE
ONGOING AT THE BEGINNING OF THE PERIOD. AS THE UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH
APPROACHES...AN 85 TO 100 KT MID-LEVEL JET WILL REINFORCE THE STRONG
DEEP LAYER SHEAR PROFILES ALREADY IN PLACE. THIS COMBINED WITH MID
60S F DEWPOINTS ACROSS SRN AND CNTRL FL MAY PROVIDE SUPPORT FOR AN
ISOLATED SEVERE THREAT WITH ROTATING STORMS POSSIBLE. THE CURRENT
MODEL SOLUTIONS SUGGEST THE GREATEST SEVERE THREAT WOULD BE IN THE
LATE MORNING AFTER SFC TEMPS HAVE WARMED BUT BEFORE A COLD FRONT
MOVES INTO THE REGION FROM THE WEST. THE SEVERE THREAT SHOULD
QUICKLY DECREASE WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON AS THE COLD FRONT MOVES ACROSS
THE FL PENINSULA DRYING THE AIRMASS OUT FROM WEST TO EAST.
...ERN CAROLINAS...
A NEGATIVELY-TILTED UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH OVER THE ERN GULF OF MEXICO
WEDNESDAY MORNING IS FORECAST TO MOVE NEWD ACROSS FL AND SRN GA INTO
THE ATLANTIC BY WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON. AT THE SFC...A LOW PRESSURE
AREA SHOULD TRACK NEWD JUST OFFSHORE FROM THE GA...SC AND NC COASTS.
THIS SFC LOW TRACK WOULD KEEP THE WARM SECTOR AND RESULTANT SEVERE
THREAT JUST OFFSHORE. HOWEVER...UNCERTAINTY REMAINS IN THE MODEL
SOLUTIONS AND A TRACK SLIGHTLY TO THE NORTHWEST WOULD PUT THE MOIST
AIRMASS ALONG THE IMMEDIATE COAST. FOR THIS REASON...WILL PUT
LOW-END SEVERE PROBABILITIES ALONG THE COASTAL SECTIONS OF SC AND
NC.
..BROYLES.. 01/24/2011
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