SWOD48
SPC AC 060930
DAY 4-8 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0330 AM CST THU JAN 06 2011
VALID 091200Z - 141200Z
...DISCUSSION...
LOW LATITUDE SHORTWAVE TROUGH WILL EJECT ENEWD ALONG THE GULF COAST
BEFORE MOVING INTO THE CAROLINAS DURING THE DAY4-5 TIME FRAME. THIS
FEATURE WILL LIKELY INDUCE SFC CYCLOGENESIS THAT WILL ENHANCE NWD
EXPANDING WARM SECTOR ACROSS THE FL PENINSULA PRIOR TO FRONTAL
PASSAGE. BOTH THE GFS AND ECMWF SUGGEST SIGNIFICANT MOISTENING WILL
LIKELY OCCUR WITH PWAT VALUES EXPECTED TO RISE WELL ABOVE ONE INCH
AHEAD OF THE WIND SHIFT. AS USUAL...LAPSE RATES MAY ULTIMATELY
LIMIT INSTABILITY AND INHIBIT MORE ROBUST CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT.
FOR THIS REASON WILL NOT INTRODUCE A SEVERE RISK SUNDAY-MONDAY TIME
FRAME AS FORECAST THERMODYNAMIC PROFILES ARE A BIT TOO MARGINAL TO
JUSTIFY ORGANIZED SEVERE AT THIS TIME.
..DARROW.. 01/06/2011
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