Friday, January 7, 2011

DAY48SVR: Nws Storm Prediction Center Norman Ok

ACUS48 KWNS 070941
SWOD48
SPC AC 070940

DAY 4-8 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0340 AM CST FRI JAN 07 2011

VALID 101200Z - 151200Z

...POTENTIAL TOO LOW TO DELINEATE A REGIONAL SEVERE RISK AREA...

MEDIUM RANGE GUIDANCE INDICATES THAT SURFACE WAVE DEVELOPMENT...
ALONG A FRONTAL ZONE ACROSS THE SOUTHEASTERN STATES AT THE OUTSET OF
THE FORECAST PERIOD...WILL REMAIN WEAK INTO TUESDAY...BEFORE
CYCLOGENESIS OCCURS EAST OF MIDDLE AND NORTHERN ATLANTIC COASTAL
AREAS...AS A LARGE-SCALE UPPER TROUGH EMERGING FROM THE WESTERN
STATES APPROACHES THE ATLANTIC SEABOARD. IN THE WAKE OF THIS
SYSTEM...A COLD SURFACE RIDGE IS PROGGED TO NOSE SOUTHWARD TO THE
LEE OF THE ROCKIES...AND DEEP INTO THE GULF OF MEXICO. WHILE THE
SPREAD AMONG THE MODELS AND ENSEMBLES GROWS CONSIDERABLY CONCERNING
THE UPPER FLOW EVOLUTION THEREAFTER...POTENTIAL FOR A SUBSTANTIVE
INLAND RETURN FLOW OF MOISTURE OFF THE GULF OF MEXICO APPEARS LOW
THROUGH THE END OF THE WORK WEEK.

..KERR.. 01/07/2011

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