SWOD48
SPC AC 190929
DAY 4-8 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0329 AM CST WED JAN 19 2011
VALID 221200Z - 271200Z
...DISCUSSION...
A MEAN SYNOPTIC TROUGH WILL DOMINATE THE ERN HALF OF THE COUNTRY
MUCH OF 4-8 PERIOD AND MAINTAIN LOW POTENTIAL FOR INLAND MOISTURE
RETURN OVER ALL AREAS EXCEPT FL BY DAY 7. SEVERAL VORTICITY MAXIMA
WILL ROTATE THROUGH THE LARGER SCALE TROUGH. MODELS GENERALLY AGREE
ON OVERALL CHARACTER OF THE LARGE SCALE PATTERN...BUT SIGNIFICANT
DIFFERENCES EXIST REGARDING TIMING AND AMPLITUDE OF SHORTWAVES
WITHIN THIS REGIME. ECMWF SUGGESTS SOME POTENTIAL FOR SEVERE WEATHER
COULD DEVELOP OVER FL BY DAY 7 /JAN 25TH/ AS A VORT MAX ROTATES
AROUND BASE OF SYNOPTIC TROUGH AND INTO THE NERN GULF INDUCING
CYCLOGENESIS AND MOISTURE RETURN ACROSS FL. DEGREE OF THREAT WOULD
DEPEND ON THE AMPLITUDE AND TRACK OF THIS WAVE WHICH REMAIN
UNCERTAIN AT THIS TIME.
..DIAL.. 01/19/2011
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