SWOD48
SPC AC 260942
DAY 4-8 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0342 AM CST WED JAN 26 2011
VALID 291200Z - 031200Z
...POTENTIAL TOO LOW TO DELINEATE A REGIONAL SEVERE THREAT AREA...
MEDIUM RANGE MODELS AND MODEL ENSEMBLES CONTINUE TO EXHIBIT LARGE
VARIABILITY THROUGH THIS PERIOD CONCERNING THE PERSISTENCE/STRENGTH
OF BLOCKING OVER THE EASTERN PACIFIC...AS WELL AS SHORT WAVE
DEVELOPMENTS WITHIN MULTIPLE PREVAILING SPLIT BELTS OF STRONGER FLOW
EXTENDING DOWNSTREAM INTO WESTERN AND CENTRAL NORTH AMERICA. THE
PATTERN DOES APPEAR CONDUCIVE TO THE DEVELOPMENT AND SOUTHEASTWARD
PROGRESSION OF ANOTHER LARGE COLD SURFACE RIDGE...FROM THE LEE OF
THE CANADIAN ROCKIES INTO THE CENTRAL U.S...BY EARLY NEXT WEEK. IF
THIS OCCURS...IT WOULD APPEAR TO LIMIT THE POTENTIAL FOR STRONG
SURFACE CYCLOGENESIS ACROSS THE CENTRAL/SOUTHERN PLAINS AND OZARKS
PLATEAU REGION...WHICH WOULD SEEM TO BE NECESSARY TO ALLOW FOR A
SUBSTANTIVE RETURN FLOW OF MOISTURE OFF THE GULF OF MEXICO. IT IS
NOT EVEN CERTAIN THAT THERE WILL BE SUFFICIENT BOUNDARY LAYER
MOISTENING ACROSS THE WESTERN AND CENTRAL GULF BY THAT TIME TO
SUPPORT MUCH BEYOND A RELATIVELY LOCALIZED OR MINOR SEVERE WEATHER
THREAT.
..KERR.. 01/26/2011
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