DAY48SVR: Nws Storm Prediction Center Norman Ok

ACUS48 KWNS 300953
SWOD48
SPC AC 300952

DAY 4-8 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0352 AM CST SUN JAN 30 2011

VALID 021200Z - 071200Z

THE MEDIUM RANGE MODELS BEGIN THE DAY 4 TO 8 PERIOD WITH A LARGE
UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH OVER THE CNTRL PLAINS AND SRN ROCKIES. ANOTHER
UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH OF SHORTER AMPLITUDE IS FORECAST TO MOVE QUICKLY
NEWD ACROSS THE ERN SEABOARD WEDNESDAY MORNING/DAY 4. IF THE TIMING
OF THE SYSTEM IS REASONABLE...STRONG THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE
ALONG AND AHEAD OF THE TROUGH ACROSS THE CAROLINAS AND GA DURING THE
DAY BEFORE THE MOIST AXIS AND CONVECTION MOVE EWD INTO THE WRN
ATLANTIC. THE MODELS THEN BRING THE SWRN U.S. UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH
QUICKLY EWD ACROSS THE SRN PLAINS AND INTO THE MS VALLEY. THE ECMWF
IS ABOUT 12 HOURS SLOWER THAN THE GFS WITH THE UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH
SUGGESTING THE LOCATION OF ANY SEVERE THREAT IS STILL HIGHLY
UNCERTAIN FROM THURSDAY/DAY 5 TO FRIDAY/DAY 6. IF THE GFS SOLUTION
IS SOMEWHAT REASONABLE...THEN A THREAT FOR STRONG STORMS COULD EXIST
ACROSS THE ERN GULF COAST STATES THURSDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING. BY
THE WEEKEND...THE MODELS FAVOR A BROAD UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH OVER THE
CNTRL CONUS BUT FAIL TO MOISTEN AT LOW-LEVELS ACROSS THE SRN PLAINS.
FOR THIS REASON...A SEVERE THREAT IS NOT ANTICIPATED FOR THE WEEKEND
AND NO THREAT AREAS ARE INTRODUCED IN THIS OUTLOOK.

..BROYLES.. 01/30/2011

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