SWOMCD
SPC MCD 261230
PAZ000-MDZ000-VAZ000-WVZ000-OHZ000-261700-
MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0047
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0630 AM CST WED JAN 26 2011
AREAS AFFECTED...PORTIONS ERN OH...NRN WV...NWRN VA...SWRN/S-CENTRAL
PA...NWRN MD INCLUDING PANHANDLE.
CONCERNING...WINTER MIXED PRECIPITATION
VALID 261230Z - 261700Z
POTENTIAL SHOULD INCREASE THROUGH 18Z FOR MIXTURE OF MDT/ISOLD HVY
SNOW AND FREEZING RAIN...WITH LIQUID EQUIVALENT RATES .1-.2
INCH/HOUR...INVOF OH RIVER VALLEY FROM PKB AREA NEWD INTO WRN PA.
PRECIP FARTHER SW ACROSS ERN KY...FAR WRN VA AND SWRN WV HAS BEEN
OCCURRING AS RAIN IN CONVEYOR OF ELEVATED LOW-LEVEL WAA JUXTAPOSED
WITH INCREASING LARGE-SCALE DCVA/ASCENT IN MIDLEVELS. THIS TREND
SHOULD CONTINUE...YIELDING MIX OF PRECIP TYPES AS IT CROSSES NEAR-
TO BELOW-FREEZING SFC AIR. 12Z SFC MESOANALYSIS REVEALS THERMAL
AXIS NEAR TRI...CRW...MGW...LBE LINE...BRACKETED BY FREEZING LINE
NEAR LEX...ZZV...30 E HLG...20 N LBE THEN BECOMING ERRATIC DEPENDING
ON ELEVATION SWD AND SEWD ACROSS NWRN WV AND NWRN MD/PANHANDLE
REGION. WEAK CAA AND DEEP-LAYER COOLING SHOULD HELP TO SHUNT
FREEZING LINE SEWD OVER OH RIVER AREA THROUGH FORENOON HOURS...WITH
LOWER DEW POINTS SUGGESTING SOME WET-BULB COOLING ALSO TO OCCUR OVER
ERN OH/SRN PA/NRN WV PANHANDLE REGION. ALTHOUGH MUCH OF OH VALLEY
OF WV/SERN OH IS JUST ABOVE FREEZING ATTM...SNOW IS LIKELY DUE TO
COLUMNAR COOLING ASSOCIATED WITH APCHG SWATH OF DEEP-LAYER
ASCENT...AS EVIDENT IN TIME SERIES OF FCST SOUNDINGS. UNTIL THAT
OCCURS...TEMPS IN SHALLOW LAYER ABOVE SFC MAY REMAIN WARM ENOUGH TO
SUPPORT THREAT FOR FREEZING RAIN INITIALLY. FARTHER SW INVOF VA/WV
BORDER AND WRN MD...SUPERFREEZING LAYER MAY BE MAINTAINED ABOVE
SFC...WITH FREEZING RAIN BEING MORE DOMINANT THAN
SNOW...TRANSITIONING MORE TOWARD SNOW NWD OVER PA.
..EDWARDS.. 01/26/2011
...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...
ATTN...WFO...CTP...LWX...RNK...PBZ...RLX...
LAT...LON 39198222 40128131 40738025 40897928 40727827 40247749
38997753 39027919 37957984 38487984 39047975 40337940
39548071 39228140 39198222
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