MESO: Mesoscale Discussion 0053

ACUS11 KWNS 301847
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 301847
ARZ000-LAZ000-TXZ000-OKZ000-302045-

MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0053
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1247 PM CST SUN JAN 30 2011

AREAS AFFECTED...PARTS OF CNTRL AND NORTHEAST TEXAS INTO THE
ARKLATEX

CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH UNLIKELY

VALID 301847Z - 302045Z

THE NEED FOR A WATCH IS NOT ANTICIPATED...BUT TRENDS WILL CONTINUE
TO BE MONITORED.

ELEVATED MIXED LAYER AIR ADVECTING NORTHEAST OF THE LOWER RIO GRANDE
VALLEY...BENEATH A MID-LEVEL COLD TROUGH ASSOCIATED WITH A LOW
AMPLITUDE SHORT WAVE IMPULSE LIFTING THROUGH EASTERN TEXAS...IS
CONTRIBUTING TO AN ENVIRONMENT FAVORABLE FOR VIGOROUS CONVECTIVE
DEVELOPMENT THIS AFTERNOON. DESTABILIZATION IS BECOMING MAXIMIZED
IN A NARROW PRE-SURFACE COLD FRONTAL CORRIDOR...ROUGHLY FROM NEAR
THE WACO/TEMPLE AREA NORTHEASTWARD TOWARD TEXARKANA...WHERE MIXED
LAYER CAPE IS NOW ON THE ORDER OF 1000-1500 J/KG...AND COULD
INCREASE A BIT FURTHER WITH ADDITIONAL SURFACE HEATING. THIS IS
GENERALLY WELL NORTH OF THE MID/UPPER JET CORE NOSING ACROSS THE
WESTERN GULF COAST REGION...AND DEEP LAYER FLOW FIELDS AND SHEAR ARE
RATHER WEAK...BUT THERMODYNAMIC PROFILES APPEAR SUPPORTIVE OF THE
RISK FOR HAIL AND WIND GUSTS WHICH COULD AT LEAST APPROACH SEVERE
LIMITS. FORCING FOR UPWARD VERTICAL MOTION JUST AHEAD OF THE
MID-LEVEL CYCLONIC VORTICITY CENTER MIGRATING OUT OF CENTRAL TEXAS
TOWARD THE ARKLATEX REGION MAY SUPPORT A SIGNIFICANT INCREASE IN
BOUNDARY LAYER BASED STORM DEVELOPMENT BETWEEN NOW AND 21-22Z. IT
IS NOT OUT OF THE QUESTION THAT SOME OF THIS ACTIVITY COULD BECOME
SEVERE...BUT ANY SEVERE THREAT IS EXPECTED TO BE FAIRLY
SHORT-LIVED...AND TEND TO DIMINISH AS ACTIVITY BECOMES EVEN MORE
WIDESPREAD LATE THIS AFTERNOON.

..KERR.. 01/30/2011

...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...

ATTN...WFO...SHV...HGX...FWD...

LAT...LON 32599660 33799502 33889419 33249315 32049394 30759596
30979698 31399717 32599660

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