SWODY1
SPC AC 041250
DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0650 AM CST FRI FEB 04 2011
VALID 041300Z - 051200Z
...NO SVR TSTM AREAS FORECAST...
...SYNOPSIS...
SPLIT FLOW WILL CONTINUE OVER THE LWR 48 THIS PERIOD...DOWNSTREAM
FROM DOMINANT E PACIFIC RIDGE. FAIRLY STRONG CLOSED LOW OVER N TX
THIS MORNING SHOULD CONTINUE ENE TO OK/AR BORDER THIS EVE AND INTO
WRN KY EARLY SAT. THE SYSTEM...WHILE REMAINING CLOSED...WILL
NEVERTHELESS BECOME INCREASINGLY SHEARED...WITH ASSOCIATED POSITIVE
TILT TROUGH EXTENDING SW TO THE TX BIG BEND BY 12Z SAT.
APPROACH OF THE TROUGH LIKELY WILL INDUCE WEAK SFC WAVE DEVELOPMENT
TODAY ALONG STALLED FRONT OVER THE NERN GULF OF MEXICO. THIS WAVE
SHOULD MOVE NE TO NEAR THE FL CSTL BEND TONIGHT...BEFORE REFORMING
NE ALONG THE NC CST EARLY SAT. A SEPARATE SFC WAVE MAY FORM OVER
ERN PARTS OF KY/TN TONIGHT... IMMEDIATELY DOWNSTREAM FROM MAIN UPR
VORT. BUT EXTENT/STRENGTH OF EXISTING COLD AIR MASS/LOW LVL
ANTICYCLONE OVER REGION SUGGEST THAT ANY SUCH DEVELOPMENT WILL
REMAIN WEAK.
...SOUTHEAST...
SWLY MID/UPR FLOW WILL STRENGTHEN OVER THE ERN GULF/S ATLANTIC
STATES TODAY/TONIGHT...DOWNSTREAM FROM APPROACHING UPR TROUGH AND
ATOP SHALLOW LAYER OF POLAR AIR LEFT FROM RECENT COLD INTRUSION.
WHILE THE GULF FRONT MAY ADVANCE N TOWARD THE FL PANHANDLE
TODAY...SFC WAVE SHOULD REMAIN OFFSHORE AND WEAK. WAA/MOISTURE
INFLOW ABOVE FRONTAL SFC SHOULD LEAD TO INCREASING COVERAGE OF
ELEVATED TSTMS THROUGH THE PERIOD...WITH ACTIVITY OVER THE CNTRL
GULF CST REGION TODAY GRADUALLY SPREADING E/NE TO THE S ATLANTIC CST
EARLY SAT. COMBINATION OF RELATIVELY WEAK MID LVL LAPSE RATES AND
MODEST FORCING FOR ASCENT SHOULD LIMIT STRENGTH/LONGEVITY OF
INDIVIDUAL STORMS. ALTHOUGH SOMEWHAT MORE SUBSTANTIAL SFC
DEVELOPMENT MAY BEGIN AROUND THE END OF THE PERIOD OVER FAR ERN NC
OR JUST OFF THE NC CST...IT APPEARS THAT TRUE MARITIME AIR WILL
REMAIN OFFSHORE DURING THIS TIME...NEGATING THE CHANCE FOR SFC-BASED
STORMS.
...PACIFIC NW...
KUIL 12Z SOUNDING AND LATEST SATELLITE DATA SUGGEST THAT TSTMS NOW
OFF THE NW CST OF WA SHOULD DIMINISH BY 15-16Z AS LOW AMPLITUDE UPR
IMPULSE CONTINUES RAPIDLY EWD...WITH LITTLE INLAND/SWD PENETRATION
OF STORMS EXPECTED.
..CORFIDI/STOPPKOTTE.. 02/04/2011
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