SWODY1
SPC AC 051256
DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0656 AM CST SAT FEB 05 2011
VALID 051300Z - 061200Z
...NO SVR TSTM AREAS FORECAST...
...SYNOPSIS...
STRONG SHORTWAVE TROUGH NOW OVER WRN KY WILL CONTINUE ENE TO THE
OH/PA BORDER THIS EVE...AND TO DOWNEAST ME BY 12Z SUN...AS UPSTREAM
JET STREAK NOW OVER THE NRN ROCKIES AMPLIFIES SE TO THE SRN HI PLNS.
AT THE SFC...BROAD/DISORGANIZED AREA OF LOW PRESSURE...WITH CENTERS
NOW OVER THE OH VLY AND OTHERS OVER THE GA AND SC/NC CSTL
PLNS...EXPECTED TO CONSOLIDATE OVER CNTRL PA BY THIS EVE BEFORE
DEEPENING OFF THE NRN NEW ENG CST EARLY SUN. COLD FRONT TRAILING SW
FROM THE OH VLY LOW SHOULD STRENGTHEN AND ACCELERATE E/SE TO THE MID
ATLANTIC CST EARLY TONIGHT...PRECEDED BY TROUGH OR WIND SHIFT LINE
LIKELY TO EVOLVE THIS AFTN OVER ERN NC.
...ERN CAROLINAS/TIDEWATER VA...
SEASONABLY RICH MOISTURE...WITH PW UP TO 1.5 INCHES...WILL PERSIST
ALONG/AHEAD OF AFOREMENTIONED PRE-FRONTAL WIND SHIFT OVER THE ERN
CAROLINAS/SE VA TODAY...BENEATH PLUME OF RELATIVELY STEEP MID LVL
LAPSE RATES SPREADING NE AHEAD OF APPROACHING UPR TROUGH. THIS
SHOULD YIELD MODEST DESTABILIZATION...WITH POCKETS OF MUCAPE TO 250
J/KG POSSIBLE BY MID/LATE AFTN.
EXPECTED TRACK OF TROUGH SUGGESTS THAT LARGE SCALE FORCING FOR
ASCENT OVER REGION WILL REMAIN COMPARATIVELY WEAK. BUT LOW LVL
UPLIFT ALONG WIND SHIFT...AND POSSIBLY ALONG RESIDUAL CSTL
BOUNDARY...MAY SUPPORT DEVELOPMENT OF SCTD TSTMS. MOST OF THIS
ACTIVITY SHOULD REMAIN EMBEDDED IN AREAS OF STRATIFORM RAIN...AND
WILL BE SLIGHTLY ELEVATED. ALSO...THE STRONGEST ACTIVITY MAY EVOLVE
OFFSHORE GIVEN SIZABLE WLY COMPONENT TO 40+ KT LLJ.
NEVERTHELESS...A SMALL WINDOW OF OPPORTUNITY MAY DEVELOP THIS AFTN
FOR A FEW SFC-BASED STORMS OVER NE SC...FAR ERN NC AND SE VA.
IF SFC-BASED STORMS DO INDEED FORM OVER THE ERN CAROLINAS/SE VA...
STRENGTHENING WIND FIELD /WITH 700 MB SW FLOW AOA 50 KTS/ WOULD
CERTAINLY SUPPORT SUSTAINED UPDRAFTS/SUPERCELLS. WEAK INSTABILITY
AND SWLY LLJ WILL MINIMIZE CONVERGENCE ALONG THE WIND SHIFT
LINE...AND POTENTIAL FOR SUSTAINED STORMS OVER LAND. BUT STRENGTH
OF WIND FIELD AND PRESENCE OF AMPLE MOISTURE SUGGEST MAINTAINING
EXISTING LOW PROBABILISTIC FORECASTS FOR LOCALLY DMGG WIND AND/OR A
TORNADO.
..CORFIDI/STOPPKOTTE.. 02/05/2011
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