SWODY1
SPC AC 071230
DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0630 AM CST MON FEB 07 2011
VALID 071300Z - 081200Z
...NO SVR TSTM AREAS FORECAST...
...SYNOPSIS...
BROAD TROUGH WITH SPLIT STREAM FLOW WILL PERSIST OVER THE CONUS
THROUGH TUE...DOWNSTREAM FROM PROMINENT E PACIFIC RIDGE. SHORTWAVE
IMPULSE NOW OVER E TX EXPECTED TO ACCELERATE E TO AL THIS
EVE...BEFORE DEAMPLIFYING SOMEWHAT AS IT CONTINUES NE OFF THE S
ATLANTIC CST TONIGHT/EARLY TUE. THE FEATURE LIKELY WILL BE
ACCOMPANIED BY ONLY A WEAK REFLECTION AT THE SFC TODAY...ALTHOUGH
MORE SUBSTANTIAL SFC DEVELOPMENT SHOULD OCCUR TONIGHT OFF THE NC
CST.
...FL...
ABSENCE OF STRONG SFC CYCLOGENESIS WILL LIMIT DEGREE OF LOW LVL
MOISTURE INFLOW/DESTABILIZATION AHEAD OF AFOREMENTIONED UPR WAVE
OVER THE INTERIOR SERN STATES TODAY. W-E WARM FRONT NOW OVER THE
NERN GULF/CNTRL FL SHOULD ADVANCE N OF THE KTPA-KMLB CORRIDOR LATER
TODAY...BUT WARM MID LVL TEMPERATURES /AROUND MINUS 11C AT 500 MB/
WILL OFFSET DEGREE OF DESTABILIZATION DESPITE ARRIVAL OF SFC
DEWPOINTS INTO THE LOW-MID 60S. AS A RESULT...LITTLE IF ANY DIURNAL
TSTM DEVELOPMENT IS EXPECTED IN WARM SECTOR OVER THE FL PENINSULA.
A BAND OF SHOWERS/TSTMS SHOULD...HOWEVER...REACH THE FL W CST BY
LATE AFTN...JUST AHEAD OF COLD FRONT/SFC WIND SHIFT AND UPR TROUGH.
MODERATE TO STRONG DEEP UNIDIRECTIONAL SW FLOW /WITH MEAN 0-6 KM
SPEEDS AROUND 50 KTS/ WILL SUPPORT STORM ORGANIZATION/
SUSTENANCE...ESPECIALLY NEAR INTERSECTION OF CONVECTIVE BAND WITH
WARM FRONT. WEAK LOW TO MID LVL LAPSE RATES AND MODEST LOW LVL
CONVERGENCE/VEERED LOW LVL FLOW SHOULD LIMIT THREAT FOR DMGG
WIND...BUT A FEW STRONGER GUSTS MAY NEVERTHELESS OCCUR GIVEN
STRENGTH OF WIND FIELD.
..CORFIDI/STOPPKOTTE.. 02/07/2011
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