SWODY1
SPC AC 081245
DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0645 AM CST TUE FEB 08 2011
VALID 081300Z - 091200Z
...NO TSTM AREAS FORECAST...
...SYNOPSIS/FORECAST...
BROAD LARGE SCALE TROUGH WILL PERSIST OVER THE U.S. THROUGH
WED...DOWNSTREAM FROM E PACIFIC RIDGE. WITHIN THE
TROUGH...SATELLITE SHOWS POTENT GRT BASIN SHORTWAVE IMPULSE
CONTINUING TO AMPLIFY AS IT CONTINUES ESEWD. THE LEADING PORTION OF
THE SYSTEM SHOULD REACH THE SRN HI PLNS BY 12Z WED AS ADDITIONAL
SPEED MAXIMA CONTINUE SE TOWARD THE FOUR CORNERS.
AT THE SFC...EXPANSIVE ARCTIC ANTICYCLONE WILL BUILD STEADILY S AND
SE ACROSS THE S CNTRL STATES THROUGH THE PERIOD ...UNDERCUTTING
RETURNING POLAR AIR MASS ACROSS THE LWR MS VLY/WRN GULF CST REGION.
DRY...STABLE BOUNDARY LAYER ENVIRONMENT WILL PROHIBIT SFC-BASED TSTM
DEVELOPMENT OVER MOST OF THE CONUS THIS PERIOD. A FEW LIGHTNING
STRIKES MAY OCCUR IN CONJUNCTION WITH HEAVY SNOW BAND EXPECTED TO
FORM OVER CNTRL/SRN OK LATER IN THE PERIOD...AS A LAYER OF MODEST
ELEVATED INSTABILITY EVOLVES IN REGION OF STRONG FRONTOGENETIC
FORCING FOR ASCENT IMMEDIATELY DOWNSTREAM OF LEAD UPR IMPULSE. BUT
LIMITED MOISTURE AVAILABILITY/COLD PROFILES SHOULD KEEP COVERAGE AOB
10%. POTENTIAL ALSO WILL EXIST FOR ISOLD STRIKES BENEATH AMPLIFYING
UPR TROUGH OVER UT AND THE FOUR CORNERS REGION THIS AFTN...BUT DRY
ENVIRONMENT SHOULD AGAIN LIMIT COVERAGE/DURATION.
..CORFIDI/STOPPKOTTE.. 02/08/2011
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