SWODY1
SPC AC 231606
DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1006 AM CST WED FEB 23 2011
VALID 231630Z - 241200Z
...NO SVR TSTM AREAS FORECAST...
...SRN PLAINS...
AS HEIGHTS FALL PAC NW WITH COLD TROUGHING DEVELOPING SWD FROM
BC...THE UPPER LOW W OF BAJA HAS MADE THE EWD TURN ABOUT AS
EXPECTED. AT THE END OF FORECAST PERIOD...12Z THU...MODELS ARE IN
RELATIVELY CLOSE AGREEMENT BRINGING THE OPEN TROUGH ACROSS SRN
ROCKIES WITH THE ASSOCIATED LARGE SCALE ASCENT AND ACCOMPANYING JET
MAX ENTERING THE SRN PLAINS.
LEE LOW SRN PLAINS BECOMES BETTER ORGANIZED BY THIS EVENING AND
SHIFTS EWD INTO SWRN OK THU AM. DEVELOPING FRONTAL BAND WILL EXTEND
ENEWD FROM SURFACE LOW ACROSS OK AND ALONG MO/AR BORDER...SETTING
THE STAGE FOR AN ACTIVE SEVERE WEATHER DAY ON DY2.
MOIST GULF AIR CONTINUES TO FLOW NWD ACROSS SRN PLAINS THRU THE
FORECAST PERIOD...HOWEVER ANY ACTIVE CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT WILL BE
ELEVATED AND PRIMARILY OVERNIGHT WHEN LARGE SCALE SUPPORT RAMPS UP
WITH APPROACH OF S/WV TROUGH.
STRENGTHENING SWLY LLJ AND MOISTURE INFLOW AHEAD OF APPROACHING UPR
IMPULSE SHOULD SUPPORT INCREASING COVERAGE OF TSTMS TONIGHT THROUGH
EARLY THU ALONG AND TO THE N OF DEVELOPING FRONTAL ZONE FROM
CNTRL/ERN OK INTO NRN AR/SRN MO. PRESENCE OF RELATIVELY STEEP LAPSE
RATES AT MID LVLS SUGGEST THAT SUFFICIENT ELEVATED CAPE MAY DEVELOP
AOA 1250 J PER KG/ TO SUPPORT SVR HAIL OVER PARTS OF OK...NW AR...SE
KS AND PERHAPS FAR SW MO MOSTLY AFTER 06Z.
LATER TONIGHT/EARLY THU IN NW TX AS LEADING EDGE OF ASCENT WITH BAJA
TROUGH REACHES WRN EDGE OF PW AXIS AND OVERCOMES CAP A FEW STG
THUNDERSTORMS COULD DEVELOP. GIVEN STRENGTH OF WIND FIELD IN THIS
REGION...AND DEGREE OF BUOYANCY /MUCAPE TO 1000 J PER KG/ ...A
THREAT WILL EXIST FOR ISOLD SVR HAIL/LOCALLY DMGG WIND TOWARD 12Z
THU.
..HALES/STOPPKOTTE.. 02/23/2011
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