SWODY1
SPC AC 241604
DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1004 AM CST THU FEB 24 2011
VALID 241630Z - 251200Z
...THERE IS A MDT RISK OF SVR TSTMS OVER PARTS OF THE LWR MS AND LWR
TN VLYS...
...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS SURROUNDING THE MDT RISK
AREA...FROM THE SRN PLNS ENE INTO THE LWR OH VLY...
...SYNOPSIS...
STRONG S/W TROUGH NOW SRN HI PLAINS ON TRACK AND WILL RESULT IN
SURFACE CYCLOGENESIS ACROSS ERN OK THIS AFTERNOON. SYSTEM BOTH
SURFACE AND ALOFT WILL DEEPEN TONIGHT AS LOW CENTER TRACKS ACROSS
NRN AR INTO KY. WARM FRONT NOW ACROSS ERN OK INTO CENTRAL AR AND
SRN TN WILL LIFT NWD THIS AFTERNOON ALLOWING A MOIST WARM SECTOR TO
SPREAD ACROSS MUCH OF LOWER MS VLY INTO TN VALLEY.
COMBINATION OF STRENGTHENING WIND FIELD AND ASCENT WITH PROGRESSIVE
TROUGH...CONTINUED MOISTURE INFLOW /WITH PW INCREASING TO AOA 1.50
INCHES/...AND DIURNAL HEATING EXPECTED TO SUPPORT AN OUTBREAK OF SVR
TSTMS OVER PARTS OF AR/TN AND ADJACENT STATES LATER THIS AFTERNOON
INTO TONIGHT.
...SERN OK/ERN TX ENE INTO THE LWR TN VLY/LWR OH VLYS...
BY EARLY AFTERNOON MODERATE SFC HEATING WITH TEMPS RISING THRU THE
70S WILL LEAD TO SUFFICIENT INSTABILITY...MLCAPES AOA 1000 J/KG...TO
SUPPORT NUMEROUS BANDS/CLUSTERS OF TSTMS ACROSS NERN TX INTO SERN
OK/WRN AR AS 90-120 METER MID-LVL HEIGHT FALLS WITH UPR IMPULSE
SWEEP ENEWD.
RELATIVELY STEEP MID-LVL LAPSE RATES...7C/KM...AND SIZABLE
CLOUD-LAYER SHEAR SUGGEST POTENTIAL FOR HAIL AND
POSSIBLY SHORT-LIVED BOWING SEGMENTS WITH HIGH WIND AS THE STORMS
MOVE/DEVELOP MAINLY ENEWD.
A FEW STORMS ALSO MAY FORM NEAR INTENSIFYING WARM FRONT
EXTENDING ENE FROM THE DEVELOPING SURFACE LOW ERN OK/WRN AR INTO
WRN/MIDDLE TN.
WITH LOW TO MID-LVL SHEAR INCREASING SUBSTANTIALLY BY LATER THIS
AFTERNOON ASSOCIATED WITH APPROACHING UPR IMPULSE OVERSPREADING THE
REGION...ARKANSAS AREA STORMS WILL POSE A THREAT FOR HIGH-IMPACT SVR
WEATHER INCLUDING SUPERCELLS WITH BOWING SEGMENTS/HIGH WINDS...LARGE
HAIL...AND POSSIBLY STRONG TORNADOES. THE TORNADO THREAT WOULD
APPEAR TO BE GREATEST FROM LATE THIS AFTN THROUGH EARLY TONIGHT NEAR
WARM FRONT OVER CNTRL/NERN AR AND WRN/MIDDLE TN...WHERE 300-400
M2/S2 0-1KM SRH WILL EXIST INVOF DEEPENING SFC LOW.
THERE IS SOME CONCERN THAT THE CURRENT MDT MAY BE A LITTLE FAR N
INTO SRN KY GIVEN THE CURRENT VERY COOL BOUNDARY LAYER...HOWEVER
WITH THE TRACK OF THE DEEPENING SURFACE LOW ACROSS THIS AREA THERE
IS AT LEAST A THREAT OF AN ORGANIZED DAMAGING WIND THREAT AS WELL AS
EMBEDDED SUPERCELLS AND TORNADOS. THUS WILL NOT MAKE ANY CHANGES IN
THE MDT RISK ATTM.
THE STORMS SHOULD EVOLVE INTO AN EXTENSIVE QLCS BY MID-EVE...WITH
OVERALL LINE MOVEMENT TO THE ENE ACROSS TN/LWR OH VLYS...AND
DEVELOPMENT SWD INTO LA/MS/AL THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT. A CONTINUING
THREAT DMGG WIND AND ISOLD TORNADOES LIKELY WILL PERSIST WELL INTO
THE NIGHT...ESPECIALLY NEAR TRACK OF SFC LOW ...AND FARTHER S IN
AREA OF GREATER SFC-BASED BUOYANCY IN MIDDLE TN...MS...AND NRN/WRN
AL.
..HALES/STOPPKOTTE.. 02/24/2011
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