SWODY1
SPC AC 121958
DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0158 PM CST SAT FEB 12 2011
VALID 122000Z - 131200Z
...NO TSTM AREAS FORECAST...
...PARTS OF CENTRAL/ERN NY TO SRN VT/WRN MA...
A FEW ADDITIONAL LIGHTNING STRIKES WILL BE POSSIBLE ALONG A SNOW
SQUALL LINE TRACKING EWD ACROSS ERN NY TOWARD SRN VT/WRN MA THIS
AFTERNOON. A GENERAL TSTM LINE WILL NOT BE INCLUDED WITH THIS
OUTLOOK...SINCE THE OVERALL COVERAGE SHOULD REMAIN LESS THAN 10
PERCENT.
AT 1930Z...REGIONAL RADAR AND VISIBLE SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWED A
NARROW LOW-TOPPED CONVECTIVE SNOW SQUALL BAND EXTENDING FROM WARREN
COUNTY NY SWWD TO NRN CORTLAND COUNTY. THIS ACTIVITY WAS LOCATED
ALONG A LOW LEVEL TROUGH/WIND SHIFT ATTENDANT TO A SHORTWAVE TROUGH
CURRENTLY MOVING ACROSS NY PER WATER VAPOR IMAGERY. THESE FEATURES
ARE EXPECTED TO MOVE OFF THE NEW ENGLAND COAST LATER THIS EVENING.
12Z NAM SUGGESTED SBCAPE 50-100 J/KG WOULD BE POSSIBLE THIS
AFTERNOON GIVEN SURFACE TEMPERATURES AOA 30 F BENEATH VERY COLD LOW
LEVEL TEMPERATURES /700 MB TEMPERATURES LESS THAN -20 C/. HEAVY
SNOWFALL REPORTED WITH THIS SQUALL LINE AND LIGHTNING DATA SHOWING A
COUPLE OF STRIKES S/E OF SYR INDICATED THIS INSTABILITY IS BEING
REALIZED. THUS...A FEW STRIKES REMAIN POSSIBLE YET THIS AFTERNOON
AS THE LOW-TOPPED CONVECTION SPREADS TOWARD SRN VT/WRN MA...WITH A
DIMINISHING TREND EXPECTED WITH THE ONSET OF BOUNDARY LAYER COOLING
BY LATE AFTERNOON/EARLY EVENING.
..PETERS.. 02/12/2011
.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1021 AM CST SAT FEB 12 2011/
DRY/STABLE CONDITIONS WILL PRECLUDE THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY ACROSS THE
CONUS TODAY.
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