SWODY1
SPC AC 230053
DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0653 PM CST TUE FEB 22 2011
VALID 230100Z - 231200Z
...NO TSTM AREAS FORECAST...
...PACIFIC NORTHWEST...
WRN EXTENT OF MID-UPPER LEVEL TROUGH CURRENTLY LOCATED ALONG THE
BRITISH COLUMBIA COAST WILL CONTINUE TO RETROGRADE/BUILD W/SWWD
TOWARD THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST AND ADJACENT OFFSHORE WATERS. HEIGHT
FALLS SPREADING SWD THROUGH WRN WA/ORE THIS FORECAST PERIOD COMBINED
WITH COOLING MIDLEVEL TEMPERATURES...ESPECIALLY ACROSS FAR WRN
WA...WILL PROMOTE DEEPER CONVECTION. DESPITE THE COOLING MIDLEVEL
TEMPERATURES...DECREASING SURFACE TEMPERATURES WILL LIMIT STRONGER
INSTABILITY FROM DEVELOPING. THUS...VERY WEAK INSTABILITY SHOULD
PRECLUDE THE POTENTIAL FOR TSTMS TONIGHT AND MAINTAIN A NO TSTM
OUTLOOK FOR THIS REGION.
...ERN OK INTO OZARKS...
A WEAK MIDLEVEL IMPULSE/JET STREAK...INDICATED BY WATER VAPOR
IMAGERY TRAVERSING NW TX AT THIS TIME...WILL REACH NERN OK AND
OZARKS OF SRN MO/NRN AR LATER TONIGHT TO EARLY WEDNESDAY MORNING.
FORECAST SOUNDINGS SUGGEST A SSWLY LLJ DEVELOPING OVER THE
SRN/CENTRAL PLAINS TONIGHT WILL TRANSPORT MOISTURE NNEWD WITHIN AN
ABOVE GROUND LEVEL LAYER /900-850 MB/ INTO THIS DISCUSSION AREA.
THIS MOISTENING AND LOW LEVEL WAA SHOULD ALLOW ELEVATED PARCELS TO
REACH THEIR LFC. HOWEVER...AN ELEVATED MIXED LAYER/CAP EVIDENT IN
00Z SOUNDINGS ACROSS THE SOUTH CENTRAL STATES SHOULD DETER UPDRAFTS
FROM REACHING EQUILIBRIUM TEMPERATURES SUFFICIENT FOR CHARGE
SEPARATION. ELEVATED CONVECTION WILL BE POSSIBLE TOWARD 12Z...BUT
TSTM POTENTIAL IS EXPECTED TO REMAIN LESS THAN 10 PERCENT.
..PETERS.. 02/23/2011
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