SWODY1
SPC AC 150045
DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0645 PM CST MON FEB 14 2011
VALID 150100Z - 151200Z
...NO SVR TSTM AREAS FORECAST...
...PACIFIC NW...
SURFACE CONVERGENCE NEAR A LOW PRESSURE TROUGH AS WELL AS STEEPENING
MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES HAVE RESULTED IN MARGINAL INSTABILITY FOR A
FEW THUNDERSTORMS ALONG THE ORE/WA COAST LATE THIS AFTERNOON. 00Z
UIL AND MFR SOUNDING SHOW VERY STRONG SHEAR PROFILES IN PLACE WHICH
WOULD CONDITIONALLY SUPPORT SEVERE WEATHER...AND INDEED A FEW SEVERE
WIND GUSTS HAVE BEEN REPORTED WITH PREVIOUS ACTIVITY.
HOWEVER...FORCING FOR STORMS SHOULD DECREASE WITH TIME AS THE
PRIMARY SURFACE LOW CONTINUES NEWD INTO BC. STILL GIVEN COLD
PROFILES ALOFT...A FEW THUNDERSTORMS MAY PERSIST MAINLY OFFSHORE
THROUGH THE NIGHT.
SATELLITE IMAGERY THIS EVENING SHOWS ANOTHER AREA OF CONVECTION
ABOUT 500 NM OFF THE ORE COAST...IN ASSOCIATION WITH ANOTHER UPPER
SPEED MAX NOSING TOWARDS THE AREA. THIS FEATURE WILL HELP SHARPEN A
SURFACE TROUGH...WHICH WILL APPROACH THE NRN CA/SW ORE COAST BY THE
END OF THE PERIOD. SOME ADDITIONAL MID LEVEL COOLING WILL HAVE
OCCURRED BY THIS TIME...WHICH WOULD ALLOW FOR DEEPER CONVECTION.
MODEL GUIDANCE SUGGESTS THAT THE BULK OF THE CONVECTION WILL BE
OFFSHORE AT 12Z TUE. HOWEVER...GIVEN WIND FIELDS STRENGTHENING EVEN
FURTHER...AND LEAVING ROOM FOR ERROR...HAVE OPTED TO ADD A SMALL 5%
AREA FOR AN ISOLATED SEVERE WIND GUST INTO TUE MORNING.
..JEWELL.. 02/15/2011
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