SWODY2
SPC AC 271730
DAY 2 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1130 AM CST SUN FEB 27 2011
VALID 281200Z - 011200Z
...THERE IS A MDT RISK OF SVR TSTMS ACROSS MUCH OF TN/KY AND
NORTHERN PORTIONS OF MS/AL/GA TO SOUTHERN WV AND WESTERN PORTIONS OF
VA/NC/SC...
...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS ACROSS THE TN/OH VALLEYS AND
SOUTHEAST/MID-ATLANTIC STATES...
...SYNOPSIS...
UPPER LOW...CURRENTLY OPENING/ACCELERATING OVER AZ/NM AS OF SUNDAY
AFTERNOON...WILL CONTINUE TO ACCELERATE NORTHEASTWARD FROM THE
SOUTHERN PLAINS/LOWER MO VALLEY EARLY MONDAY TO THE NORTHEAST
STATES/MID-ATLANTIC SEABOARD BY MONDAY EVENING. AT THE SURFACE...THE
PRIMARY SURFACE LOW IS EXPECTED TO STEADILY ADVANCE NORTHEASTWARD
FROM THE UPPER OH VALLEY/LOWER GREAT LAKES TO NEW ENGLAND...WITH
SECONDARY SURFACE LOW DEVELOPMENT POSSIBLE TOWARD THE
APPALACHIANS/MID-ATLANTIC STATES AHEAD AN EASTWARD-ADVANCING PACIFIC
COLD FRONT/EARLY DAY CONVECTION. A POTENTIALLY WIDESPREAD SEVERE
EPISODE IS LIKELY ON MONDAY...INCLUDING THE POSSIBILITY OF
WIDESPREAD SWATHS OF DAMAGING WINDS IN ADDITION TO TORNADOES.
...TN VALLEY/LOWER OH VALLEY TO SOUTHEAST/MID-ATLANTIC STATES...
AN ONGOING DAMAGING WIND/TORNADO RISK IS PROBABLE ACROSS PORTIONS OF
THE TN VALLEY/LOWER OH VALLEY VICINITIES AT THE BEGINNING OF THE
PERIOD...REFERENCE DAY 1 OUTLOOKS FOR ADDITIONAL GUIDANCE. WITH
AROUND 60 F SURFACE DEWPOINTS ALREADY ESTABLISHED THIS AFTERNOON
ACROSS THE TN VALLEY...AND MIDDLE 60S F DEWPOINTS ALONG THE GULF
COAST...ROBUST NORTHEASTWARD MOISTURE TRANSPORT /AS AIDED BY 50-70
KT SOUTHWESTERLY WINDS AROUND 1-2 KM/ WILL CONTINUE TO OCCUR THROUGH
TONIGHT AND THE DAY ON MONDAY.
AT THE BEGINNING OF THE PERIOD...THE MOST PROBABLE SCENARIO WOULD
INCLUDES THE POSSIBILITY OF SEMI-DISCRETE SUPERCELLS AHEAD OF
INCREASINGLY LINEAR/QLCS-TYPE CONVECTION ROUGHLY ATTENDANT TO THE
EASTWARD ADVANCING PACIFIC FRONT...WHICH SHOULD BE NEARING THE MS
RIVER VICINITY EARLY IN THE MORNING. EVEN WITH AN UNFAVORABLE
CLIMATOLOGY TIME OF DAY /NEAR 12Z/...SURFACE BASED TSTMS SEEM
PROBABLE GIVEN THE DEGREE OF MOISTURE/TURBULENT MIXING...AS
SUPPORTED BY VARIOUS FORECAST SOUNDINGS...WITH CORRESPONDING
POTENTIAL FOR DAMAGING WIND AND EVEN STRONG TORNADO RISK ONGOING AT
THE BEGINNING OF THE PERIOD VIA QLCS/EMBEDDED SUPERCELLULAR MODES.
IN ADDITION...ALONG/NORTH OF THE SURFACE FRONTAL ZONE ACROSS THE OH
VALLEY/MIDWEST...AN EARLY DAY ELEVATED HAIL THREAT COULD EXIST AS
WELL.
SUBSEQUENT ADDITIONAL/BACKBUILDING TYPE DEVELOPMENT IS EXPECTED
THROUGH THE DAY ALONG/AHEAD OF THE COLD FRONT AS ACTIVITY
DEVELOPS/QUICKLY SPREADS EASTWARD TOWARD THE APPALACHIANS/SOUTHEAST
STATES. IN ALL...A BROAD AREA OF STRONG DEEP-LAYER FLOW/STRONG SPEED
SHEAR IS EXPECTED COINCIDENT WITH A SEASONALLY MOIST AND AT LEAST
MARGINALLY UNSTABLE WARM SECTOR. FAST-MOVING/WELL-ORGANIZED
QUASI-LINEAR/BOWING CONVECTION...IN ADDITION TO QUASI-DISCRETE OR
EMBEDDED SUPERCELLS...WILL SUPPORT THE POTENTIAL FOR WIDESPREAD
SWATHS OF DAMAGING WINDS AS WELL AS SOME TORNADOES.
..GUYER.. 02/27/2011
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