MESO: Mesoscale Discussion 0117

ACUS11 KWNS 211520
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 211520
OHZ000-MIZ000-INZ000-212015-

MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0117
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0920 AM CST MON FEB 21 2011

AREAS AFFECTED...NERN IND INTO NWRN OH

CONCERNING...FREEZING RAIN

VALID 211520Z - 212015Z

FREEZING RAIN WILL INCREASE FROM WEST TO EAST LATE THIS MORNING INTO
THE AFTERNOON. EXPECT RATES AROUND 0.05"-0.10" PER 3 HOURS. ACROSS
NRN PORTIONS OF THE MCD AREA WHERE COLD AIR IS SOMEWHAT DEEPER...A
WINTRY MIX OF SLEET...SNOW AND FREEZING RAIN MAY BE MORE LIKELY.

14Z SFC ANALYSIS SHOWED LOW CURRENTLY OVER SERN IL WITH WARM FRONT
EXTENDING EWD ACROSS SRN IND INTO SRN OH. WARM MOIST ISENTROPIC
ASCENT OVER THE FRONTAL ZONE WAS RESULTING IN WIDESPREAD
PRECIPITATION ACROSS MOST OF CNTRL IL/IND AND OH. AS THE SFC LOW
CONTINUES EWD INTO SRN OH TODAY...BAND OF PRECIPITATION SHOULD
CONTINUE TO IMPACT MUCH OF THE LOWER GREAT LAKES. FORECAST SOUNDINGS
INDICATE ENVIRONMENT FAVORABLE FOR FREEZING RAIN AND SLEET WITH
ELEVATED WARM NOSE AROUND 3 TO 5 DEGREES C...BECOMING COOLER FURTHER
NORTH IN DEEPER COLD AIR. THE ONLY QUESTION MARK WILL BE THE AMOUNT
OF SFC WARM AIR ADVECTION NEAR THE WARM FRONT AND WHETHER
TEMPERATURES WILL FALL BELOW FREEZING IN THE SOUTHERN FRINGES OF THE
MCD AREA.
OTHERWISE...EXPECT A WINTRY MIX ACROSS NRN PORTIONS OF THE AREA WITH
FREEZING RAIN BEING THE MAIN PRECIPITATION TYPE ACROSS THE S.

..STOPPKOTTE.. 02/21/2011

...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...

ATTN...WFO...PBZ...CLE...ILN...DTX...IWX...IND...

LAT...LON 40818651 40548642 40398626 40288584 40208545 40128492
40118406 40068338 40088274 40218203 40608166 40808156
40978153 41068154 41298165 41518179 41568194 41648209
41798314 41808344 41798482 41818603 41338635 40818651

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