WATCHES: Severe Thunderstorm Watch Number 20

WWUS20 KWNS 271914
SEL0
SPC WW 271914
KSZ000-MOZ000-280300-

URGENT - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED
SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH NUMBER 20
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
115 PM CST SUN FEB 27 2011

THE NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER HAS ISSUED A
SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH FOR PORTIONS OF

SOUTH CENTRAL INTO EAST CENTRAL KANSAS
PARTS OF WESTERN AND NORTHERN MISSOURI

EFFECTIVE THIS SUNDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING FROM 115 PM UNTIL 900
PM CST.

HAIL TO 2 INCHES IN DIAMETER...THUNDERSTORM WIND GUSTS TO 70
MPH...AND DANGEROUS LIGHTNING ARE POSSIBLE IN THESE AREAS.

THE SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH AREA IS APPROXIMATELY ALONG AND 45
STATUTE MILES NORTH AND SOUTH OF A LINE FROM 70 MILES NORTHEAST
OF KNOB NOSTER MISSOURI TO 40 MILES SOUTHWEST OF HUTCHINSON
KANSAS. FOR A COMPLETE DEPICTION OF THE WATCH SEE THE ASSOCIATED
WATCH OUTLINE UPDATE (WOUS64 KWNS WOU0).

REMEMBER...A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH MEANS CONDITIONS ARE
FAVORABLE FOR SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS IN AND CLOSE TO THE WATCH
AREA. PERSONS IN THESE AREAS SHOULD BE ON THE LOOKOUT FOR
THREATENING WEATHER CONDITIONS AND LISTEN FOR LATER STATEMENTS
AND POSSIBLE WARNINGS. SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS CAN AND OCCASIONALLY
DO PRODUCE TORNADOES.

DISCUSSION...ELEVATED THUNDERSTORMS ARE BEGINNING TO INTENSIFY OVER
S CENTRAL KS...IMMEDIATELY N OF A SURFACE WARM FRONT. STEEP LAPSE
RATES AND A FEED OF MOISTURE ABOVE THE COOL AIR MASS WILL SUPPORT
MUCAPE ON THE ORDER OF 1500 J/KG...WHILE DEEP-LAYER VERTICAL SHEAR
WILL BE FAVORABLE FOR EMBEDDED SUPERCELLS. LARGE HAIL WILL BE THE
MAIN SEVERE THREAT...THOUGH AREAS IMMEDIATELY S OF THE WATCH AREA
WILL BE MONITORED FOR A POSSIBLE TORNADO THREAT WITH STORMS ON THE
WARM FRONT A LITTLE LATER THIS AFTERNOON.

AVIATION...A FEW SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WITH HAIL SURFACE AND ALOFT
TO 2 INCHES. EXTREME TURBULENCE AND SURFACE WIND GUSTS TO 60
KNOTS. A FEW CUMULONIMBI WITH MAXIMUM TOPS TO 450. MEAN STORM
MOTION VECTOR 24040.

...THOMPSON

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