SWODY1
SPC AC 011958
DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0158 PM CST TUE MAR 01 2011
VALID 012000Z - 021200Z
...NO SVR TSTM AREAS FORECAST...
...SYNOPSIS...
CURRENT FORECAST APPEARS TO BE ON TRACK...THOUGH THUNDER POTENTIAL
APPEARS LOWER ACROSS FL THAN PREVIOUSLY ANTICIPATED. STILL...WILL
MAINTAIN 10% PROBABILITY WITH SCATTERED SHOWER ACTIVITY ONGOING
ACROSS THE SRN HALF OF THE STATE.
ELSEWHERE...APPRECIABLE THUNDER THREAT IS NOT EXPECTED THROUGH THE
PERIOD.
..GOSS.. 03/01/2011
.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1007 AM CST TUE MAR 01 2011/
...SYNOPSIS...
A MIDLEVEL SHORTWAVE TROUGH IS MOVING OFF THE SE ATLANTIC COAST AS
OF MID MORNING...AND AN ASSOCIATED/WEAKENING SURFACE COLD FRONT WILL
CONTINUE SWD THIS AFTERNOON ACROSS CENTRAL/S FL. SOMEWHAT LIMITED
LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE AND RATHER MODEST MIDLEVEL LAPSE RATES WILL LIMIT
THE MAGNITUDE OF INSTABILITY OVER CENTRAL/S FL THIS AFTERNOON...BUT
STRONG SURFACE HEATING AND WEAK ASCENT ALONG THE FRONT SHOULD
MAINTAIN A THREAT FOR ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS THROUGH THE AFTERNOON.
OTHERWISE...AN ERN PAC SHORTWAVE TROUGH AND ASSOCIATED SUBTROPICAL
MOISTURE PLUME WILL REACH NRN AND CENTRAL CA OVERNIGHT. FORECAST
SOUNDINGS SHOW 100-200 J/KG MUCAPE ROOTED NEAR 800 MB FROM ABOUT
09-12Z ALONG THE CENTRAL CA COAST. WHILE ISOLATED LIGHTNING STRIKES
CANNOT BE RULED OUT NEAR THE COAST...THE OVERALL THUNDERSTORM THREAT
APPEARS TOO MARGINAL TO WARRANT THE ADDITION OF AN OUTLOOK AREA AT
THIS TIME.
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