SWODY1
SPC AC 030526
DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1126 PM CST WED MAR 02 2011
VALID 031200Z - 041200Z
...NO SVR TSTM AREAS FORECAST...
...SYNOPSIS...
LARGE SCALE PATTERN WILL REMAIN FAIRLY ZONAL THROUGH THE DAY1 PERIOD
WITH SEVERAL MINOR BUT SIGNIFICANT SHORTWAVE TROUGH/S EXPECTED TO
TRAVERSE THE INTERIOR GREAT BASIN ACROSS THE PLAINS INTO THE MID MS
VALLEY. OVERALL A STEEPER LAPSE RATE REGIME WILL GRADUALLY DEVELOP
ACROSS THE WRN U.S. WITH OCCASIONAL EWD DISPLACEMENT OF ELEVATED
PLUMES INTO THE MS VALLEY DUE TO AFOREMENTIONED FAST-MOVING
SHORTWAVES.
AS WARM ADVECTION INCREASES ACROSS THE MS VALLEY REGION IT APPEARS
SUFFICIENT MOISTENING WILL OCCUR BY LATE IN THE PERIOD TO WARRANT AT
LEAST A LOW PROBABILITY FOR WEAK ELEVATED CONVECTION. THE MOST
LIKELY REGION TO EXPERIENCE CONVECTION DEEP ENOUGH FOR LIGHTNING
WILL BE ALONG AN AXIS FROM ERN AR INTO SRN IL. EVEN SO BUOYANCY
WILL REMAIN MEAGER AND STORMS SHOULD REMAIN ISOLATED.
FARTHER WEST...STEEP LAPSE RATES WILL DEVELOP/OVERSPREAD MUCH OF THE
GREAT BASIN INTO THE CNTRL ROCKIES ALONG AND NORTH OF A WELL DEFINED
MID LEVEL JET. BROAD ASCENT WITHIN CYCLONIC FLOW WILL ENHANCE THE
PROSPECT FOR DEEP CONVECTION ACROSS MUCH OF UT INTO CO...ESPECIALLY
OVER HIGHER TERRAIN AND FAVORED UPSLOPE REGIONS. FORECAST SOUNDINGS
SUGGEST A FEW HUNDRED J/KG SBCAPE IS CERTAINLY REASONABLE AND
SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS SHOULD BE NOTED ACROSS THE OUTLOOK AREA.
..DARROW/ROGERS.. 03/03/2011
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