SWODY1
SPC AC 061933
DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0133 PM CST SUN MAR 06 2011
VALID 062000Z - 071200Z
...NO SVR TSTM AREAS FORECAST...
...MID ATLANTIC COAST/ERN CAROLINAS...
WIDESPREAD CONVECTION -- BUT LITTLE LIGHTNING -- IS ONGOING ATTM
AHEAD OF A SURFACE STORM SYSTEM MOVING ACROSS THE ERN STATES. COLD
FRONT -- STRETCHING SWD FROM A LOW MOVING INTO SRN VA -- IS NOW OFF
THE GA COAST...AND CONTINUES MOVING EWD ACROSS THE ERN CAROLINAS AND
SEWD ACROSS FL.
WHILE SHEAR REMAINS SUFFICIENT ACROSS THE CAROLINAS/SERN VA WARM
SECTOR FOR A FEW ORGANIZED CELLS -- AND THUS A CONTINUATION OF A
LOW-PROBABILITY WIND/ISOLATED TORNADO THREAT...DEARTH OF ONSHORE
LIGHTNING REVEALS THE OVERALL LACK OF CAPE. SOMEWHAT GREATER
INSTABILITY DOES RESIDE FARTHER S ALONG AND AHEAD OF THE FRONT
ACROSS FL...BUT WEAKER SHEAR ACROSS THAT REGION WILL PRECLUDE
APPRECIABLE SEVERE POTENTIAL.
..GOSS.. 03/06/2011
.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1025 AM CST SUN MAR 06 2011/
...MID ATLANTIC COAST...
TROUGH/VORT MAX GA LIFTING NEWD PROVIDING FAVORABLE UPPER SUPPORT
FOR SURFACE WAVE NC ALONG FRONTAL ZONE LOCATED JUST E OF
APPALACHIANS TO MOVE NEWD AND OFFSHORE BY THIS EVENING DE/SRN NJ
COAST.
WHILE SHEAR PROFILES ALREADY MORE THAN ADEQUATE TO SUPPORT ORGANIZED
CONVECTION AND POSSIBLE SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS IN ADVANCE OF LOW AND
FRONT FROM ERN NC NEWD ACROSS SERN VA AND SRN MD...THE WEAKLY
UNSTABLE AIR MASS PRECLUDES MORE THAN A LOW SEVERE PROBABILITY THRU
THE AFTERNOON.
FORECAST SOUNDINGS SHOW MOIST-ADIABATIC LAPSE RATES AND
VERY LOW CAPE VALUES /GENERALLY BELOW 500 J/KG/ ACROSS THE WARM
SECTOR PRIOR TO COLD FRONT AND SURFACE LOW MOVING OFFSHORE. LARGE
SCALE ASCENT AND SLIGHT COOLING ALOFT WILL LEAD TO BANDS OF LOW
TOPPED CONVECTION NOW DEVELOPING ERN NC CONTINUING NEWD. GIVEN THE
VERY MARGINAL INSTABILITY WILL MAINTAIN ONLY 5 PERCENT SEVERE
PROBABILITIES TODAY WITH THE POSSIBILITY OF A BRIEF TORNADO AND/OR
STRONG WIND GUSTS THRU THE AFTERNOON.
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