SWODY1
SPC AC 111908
DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0108 PM CST FRI MAR 11 2011
VALID 112000Z - 121200Z
...NO TSTM AREAS FORECAST...
NO CHANGES TO THE PREVIOUS OUTLOOK AS THUNDER CHANCES REMAIN MINIMAL
ACROSS THE ENTIRE CONUS. WARM CONVEYOR AHEAD OF THE UPPER GREAT
LAKES TROUGH CONTINUES TO BE DEVOID OF ANY LIGHTNING AND THIS TREND
IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE AS MODEL FORECAST SOUNDINGS SHOW LITTLE IF
ANY ADDITIONAL INSTABILITY DEVELOPING.
..JEWELL.. 03/11/2011
.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1019 AM CST FRI MAR 11 2011/
...SYNOPSIS/FORECAST...
UPPER LOW OVER THE LOWER GREAT LAKES WILL LIFT NEWD INTO THE ST
LAWRENCE VALLEY AS UPSTREAM SHORT WAVE TROUGH CONTINUES EWD ACROSS
THE NRN PLAINS. COLD MID LEVEL TEMPERATURES /-28C AT 500 MB/ ARE
ASSOCIATED WITH THE UPPER LOW BUT THEY REMAIN WEST OF THE MERIDIONAL
WARM CONVEYOR BELT OVER NEW ENGLAND. MODEL FORECAST SOUNDINGS FROM
THE NAM/RUC/AND SREF ETA-KF CONTROL MEMBER SUGGEST A LOW PROBABILITY
OF AN ISOLATED THUNDERSTORM OVER PARTS OF SRN/ERN ME THIS AFTERNOON
ALONG THE LEADING EDGE OF STRONGER COLD ADVECTION ALOFT...BUT
OVERALL THREAT IS TOO LOW TO WARRANT A THUNDERSTORM AREA.
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