SWODY1
SPC AC 121910
DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0110 PM CST SAT MAR 12 2011
VALID 122000Z - 131200Z
...NO SVR TSTM AREAS FORECAST...
LITTLE CHANGE TO THE PREVIOUS OUTLOOK. CONTINUED HEATING ACROSS UT
AND CO WILL RESULT IN EXPANDING CU FIELDS AND MAYBE AN ISOLATED WEAK
THUNDERSTORM FAVORING THE HIGHER TERRAIN.
..JEWELL.. 03/12/2011
.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1001 AM CST SAT MAR 12 2011/
...GREAT BASIN INTO CNTRL ROCKIES...
SHORT-WAVE TROUGH CURRENTLY APPROACHING THE PACIFIC NW/NRN CA COASTS
WILL CONTINUE EWD...REACHING THE NRN/CNTRL ROCKIES BY SUN MORNING.
STEEPENING LAPSE RATES IN ADVANCE OF THIS FEATURE COUPLED WITH
LOW-LEVEL INFLUENCE OF A WEAK BAROCLINIC ZONE AND OROGRAPHIC FORCING
WILL BE SUPPORTIVE OF ISOLATED TO WIDELY SCATTERED TSTMS THIS
AFTERNOON AND EVENING.
...OZARK PLATEAU INTO LOWER MS VALLEY...
12Z SRN PLAINS SOUNDINGS INDICATE THE PRESENCE OF A WELL-DEFINED
ELEVATED-MIXED LAYER /EML/ WITH AN ASSOCIATED STRONG CAP BASED JUST
ABOVE 850-MB. PERSISTENT LOW-LEVEL WAA/MOISTURE TRANSPORT OCCURRING
ALONG THE NERN FRINGE OF EML/CAP MAY ALLOW FOR ELEVATED CONVECTION
TO DEVELOP TONIGHT INTO SUN MORNING FROM FAR ERN OK INTO WRN TN.
WHILE A FEW LIGHTNING STRIKES WILL BE POSSIBLE WITH ANY DEEPER
CONVECTIVE ELEMENTS...FORECAST SOUNDINGS INDICATE THAT WEAK CAPPING
WILL PERSIST...TEMPERING THE POTENTIAL FOR MORE ROBUST TSTM
DEVELOPMENT.
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