SWODY1
SPC AC 030044
DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0644 PM CST WED MAR 02 2011
VALID 030100Z - 031200Z
...NO SVR TSTM AREAS FORECAST...
...GREAT BASIN...
A NARROW BAND OF WEAK CONVECTION...AND EVEN ISOLATED
THUNDERSTORMS...HAS DEVELOPED ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE GREAT BASIN
ALONG A ZONE OF LOW LEVEL CONFLUENCE THAT STRETCHES FROM CNTRL INTO
NERN NV. THIS ACTIVITY HAS EVOLVED WITHIN A REGION OF STEEP
LOW-MIDLEVEL LAPSE RATES CHARACTERIZED BY MUCAPE ON THE ORDER OF
100-200 J/KG...PER LKN 03/00Z OBSERVED SOUNDING. IT APPEARS
CONVECTIVE INTENSITY SUFFICIENT FOR LIGHTNING DISCHARGE MAY LINGER
FOR THE NEXT FEW HOURS ALONG THIS ADVANCING BOUNDARY AS IT
PROGRESSES ACROSS ERN NV INTO PERHAPS EXTREME NWRN UT. FOR THIS
REASON HAVE ADDED A LOW PROBABILITY FOR THUNDERSTORMS UNTIL BOUNDARY
LAYER COOLING RESULTS IN WEAKER INSTABILITY/UPDRAFTS.
..DARROW.. 03/03/2011
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