SWODY1
SPC AC 290056
DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0756 PM CDT MON MAR 28 2011
VALID 290100Z - 291200Z
...NO SVR TSTM AREAS FORECAST...
...OK...
EARLY EVENING SURFACE STREAMLINE ANALYSES INDICATED AN AREA OF LOW
LEVEL CONVERGENCE EXTENDING FROM NORTH CENTRAL TO NWRN TX...WHILE
FARTHER SOUTH...SELY WINDS HAVE ADVECTED GREATER MOISTURE VALUES
/SURFACE DEWPOINTS MID-UPPER 50S/ TO AREAS ALONG AND SOUTH OF JCT.
WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWED A COMPACT SHORTWAVE TROUGH TRACKING SEWD
THROUGH SWRN WY/NERN UT...WITH THIS FEATURE EXPECTED TO REACH CO BY
12Z TUESDAY. IN RESPONSE TO WEAK HEIGHT FALLS OVER THE SRN PLAINS
TONIGHT WITH THE APPROACH OF THIS TROUGH...A 30-40 KT SSWLY LLJ IS
EXPECTED FROM THE TX BIG BEND INTO SWRN OK. THIS JET WILL PROMOTE
LOW LEVEL MOISTENING/WAA AND ISENTROPIC ASCENT ATOP THE N TX SURFACE
BOUNDARY WITH CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT EXPECTED OVER WRN/SRN OK AFTER
06Z. THIS ACTIVITY SHOULD EXPAND IN COVERAGE ACROSS CENTRAL TO
NERN-ERN OK THROUGH 12Z. ALTHOUGH THE OPERATIONAL DETERMINISTIC
MODELS SUGGEST A GREATER CONVECTIVE POTENTIAL FROM WRN INTO SRN OK
LATER TONIGHT...THE LAST FEW RUNS OF THE EXPERIMENTAL WRF-HRRR AND
21Z RUC SUPPORT MAINTAINING A TSTM THREAT INTO CENTRAL...NERN AND
ERN OK AS WELL.
COOLING MIDLEVEL TEMPERATURES WITH THE APPROACH OF THE WY/UT TROUGH
WILL STEEPEN LAPSE RATES ATOP THE LOW LEVEL MOISTENING/WAA...
RESULTING IN MUCAPE 500-1000 J/KG. THIS WILL ENCOURAGE THE
POTENTIAL FOR STRONGER UPDRAFTS...WHILE FORECAST EFFECTIVE BULK
SHEAR /25-35 KT/ SUGGESTS A FEW STORMS COULD BECOME ORGANIZED WITH
AN ATTENDANT THREAT FOR HAIL...SOME REACHING SEVERE LEVELS.
SOMEWHAT LIMITED TEMPORAL AND SPATIAL COVERAGE OF STRONGER TO SEVERE
STORMS OVERNIGHT CONTINUES TO SUPPORT LOW SEVERE HAIL PROBABILITIES
BEING MAINTAINED WITH THIS OUTLOOK ISSUANCE.
...FL...
EARLY EVENING SURFACE ANALYSES/REGIONAL RADAR IMAGERY SHOWED A SWD
MOVING CONVECTIVE OUTFLOW BOUNDARY OVER EXTREME S FL WITH THIS
FEATURE EXPECTED TO MOVE OFFSHORE MID-LATE EVENING. WEAK WAA
ASSOCIATED WITHIN SWLY LOW LEVEL FLOW ATOP A STABLE BOUNDARY LAYER N
OF THE OUTFLOW SHOULD CONTINUE TO SUPPORT SHOWERS AND SOME EMBEDDED
TSTMS. EFFECTIVE BULK SHEAR AND SRH VALUES REMAIN STRONG ENOUGH FOR
STORM ORGANIZATION WITH POTENTIAL FOR LOW LEVEL ROTATION OVER S FL
INVOF OF THE OUTFLOW BOUNDARY. HOWEVER...THE ONSET OF DIABATIC
COOLING WILL CONTINUE TO STRENGTHEN SBCINH AND LIMIT SURFACE BASED
STORM DEVELOPMENT. THUS...THIS OUTLOOK WILL MAINTAIN NO SEVERE
PROBABILITIES ACROSS FL.
..PETERS.. 03/29/2011
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