Thursday, March 17, 2011

DAY1SVR: Day 1 Convective Outlook

ACUS01 KWNS 180029
SWODY1
SPC AC 180027

DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0727 PM CDT THU MAR 17 2011

VALID 180100Z - 181200Z

...NO SVR TSTM AREAS FORECAST...

SFC LOW ASSOCIATED WITH SHORTWAVE TROUGH OVER SRN CANADA/UPPER GREAT
LAKES REGION WILL CONTINUE E-NEWD OVERNIGHT. ATTENDANT COLD FRONT
ANALYZED ACROSS ERN WI SWWD TO NEAR MCI INTO NWRN OK WILL ACT AS THE
MAIN FEATURE OF INTEREST OVERNIGHT. INCREASING LLJ ACROSS PORTIONS
OF NERN OK/SERN KS/SWRN MO/NWRN AR SHOULD FOCUS LIFT ALONG SEWD
ADVANCING FRONT. GIVEN SUFFICIENTLY MOIST ENVIRONMENT /SFC DEWPOINTS
NEAR 60 F/ AND STEEP MIDLEVEL LAPSE RATES /AROUND 7.5 C/KM/...A
SMALL CORRIDOR MAY EXIST FOR STORMS TO DEVELOP WITH STRONGER STORMS
POTENTIALLY PRODUCING SMALL HAIL.

AFOREMENTIONED SHORTWAVE THROUGH WILL TRACK ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES
INTO NEW ENGLAND OVERNIGHT. FAST FLOW COUPLED WITH COLD MIDLEVEL
TEMPERATURES/STEEP LAPSE RATES WILL RESULT IN A FEW HUNDRED J/KG
MUCAPE AHEAD OF MAIN TROUGH...AND A FEW ELEVATED THUNDERSTORMS MAY
DEVELOP.

ELSEWHERE...ISOLATED LOW TOPPED THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE ALONG
PORTIONS OF THE PACIFIC COAST FROM NRN CA TO SRN ORE AS UPPER LEVEL
LOW CONTINUES TO MOVE ONSHORE AND A PLUME OF STEEP MIDLEVEL LAPSE
RATES RESIDES OVER THE REGION.

..STOPPKOTTE/JEWELL.. 03/18/2011

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