SWODY1
SPC AC 021913
DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0113 PM CST WED MAR 02 2011
VALID 022000Z - 031200Z
...NO TSTM AREAS FORECAST...
...CNTRL/NRN NV...
BROAD LOW AMPLITUDE UPPER TROUGHING WITH EMBEDDED IMPULSES WILL
GRADUALLY SPREAD EWD ACROSS THE WRN CONUS DURING THE REMAINDER OF
THE FORECAST PERIOD. AS THIS TAKES PLACE...COLD MIDLEVEL AIR /500 MB
TEMPERATURES AOB -20C/ WILL CONTINUE TO ADVECT OVER THE GREAT BASIN.
THIS COOLING WILL AID IN STEEPENING LAPSE RATES...WHILE LOW-LEVEL
MOISTENING ACCOMPANYING AN APPROACHING COLD FRONT IS FORECAST TO
LEAD TO THE DEVELOPMENT OF WEAK MUCAPE /AOB 300 J PER KG/ AND
FAVORABLY COLD EL TEMPERATURES OVER PORTIONS OF CNTRL/NRN NV. THIS
ENVIRONMENT MAY SUPPORT A FEW LIGHTNING STRIKES OVER THE NRN HALF OF
NV DURING THE LATE AFTERNOON/EVENING...BUT COVERAGE IS STILL
EXPECTED TO BE TOO LOW TO SUPPORT A 10 PERCENT THUNDER DELINEATION.
..GARNER/KERR.. 03/02/2011
.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 0946 AM CST WED MAR 02 2011/
...SYNOPSIS...
A PRONOUNCED MIDLEVEL SHORTWAVE TROUGH IS ROTATING NEWD OVER THE NW
WA COAST AS OF MID MORNING. SATELLITE IMAGERY AND 12Z SOUNDINGS
SUGGEST THAT INSTABILITY AND CONVECTIVE POTENTIAL WILL REMAIN
MINIMAL INLAND...THUS HAVE REMOVED THE TSTM OUTLOOK AREA. THE ONLY
OTHER AREA WITH ANY APPRECIABLE RISK FOR THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE
ACROSS CENTRAL/NE NV THIS AFTERNOON INTO TONIGHT. VERY WEAK
MIDLEVEL INSTABILITY WILL BE POSSIBLE /PER THE 12Z REV
SOUNDING/...BUT THE OVERALL THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL APPEARS TOO LOW
TO ADD AN OUTLOOK AREA FOR NV.
ELSEWHERE...A RELATIVELY COOL CONTINENTAL AIR MASS COVERS THE CONUS
E OF THE ROCKIES...WHERE THUNDERSTORMS ARE NOT EXPECTED.
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