SWODY2
SPC AC 260513
DAY 2 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1213 AM CDT SAT MAR 26 2011
VALID 271200Z - 281200Z
...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS FROM SRN GA...SRN SC INTO
EXTREME NRN FL...
...SYNOPSIS...
UPPER PATTERN WILL REMAIN CHARACTERIZED BY BELT OF STRONGER WLYS
ACROSS SRN TWO THIRDS OF U.S. BENEATH HIGHER LATITUDE OMEGA BLOCK.
SHORTWAVE TROUGH NOW MOVING INTO THE CNTRL ROCKIES WILL DEAMPLIFY AS
IT ADVANCES EWD INTO THE CONFLUENT FLOW REGIME OVER THE CNTRL
APPALACHIANS AND MID ATLANTIC. COLD FRONT INITIALLY FROM SC SWWD
THROUGH SRN TX EARLY SUNDAY WILL CONTINUE SWD THROUGH MOST OF THE
REMAINDER OF THE SERN STATES...BUT MAY EVENTUALLY STALL FROM NRN FL
WWD INTO SRN TX.
...SERN STATES...
LOW-MID 60S DEWPOINTS WILL HAVE ADVECTED THROUGH PRE-FRONTAL WARM
SECTOR FROM THE GULF COASTAL AREA NEWD INTO CNTRL/SRN GA AND SRN SC.
DIABATIC WARMING OF THE SURFACE LAYER SHOULD YIELD 1000-1500 J/KG
MLCAPE. STORMS MAY ALREADY BE IN PROGRESS IN VICINITY OF THE COLD
FRONT EARLY SUNDAY. ADDITIONAL STORMS COULD DEVELOP ALONG THE FRONT
OR OUTFLOW BOUNDARIES AS THE ATMOSPHERE DESTABILIZES. LOW LEVEL
WINDS WILL VEER AND WEAKEN AHEAD OF FRONT AS SHORTWAVE TROUGH
ADVANCES TOWARD THE ATLANTIC COAST. HOWEVER...STORMS WILL REMAIN
EMBEDDED WITHIN BELT OF STRONGER WLYS WITH 50 KT EFFECTIVE SHEAR
WITH ISOLATED DAMAGING WIND AND HAIL THE MAIN THREATS. THE VEERING
AND WEAKENING LOW LEVEL WINDS WITH TIME AND EWD ADVECTION OF REMNANT
EML PLUME COULD POTENTIALLY LIMIT STORM COVERAGE ESPECIALLY WITH WWD
EXTENT TOWARD THE GULF COASTAL AREA.
...LOWER MS VALLEY AND SERN STATES OVERNIGHT...
COLD FRONT IS EXPECTED TO STALL FROM THE GULF COAST WWD ACROSS SRN
TX...AND SWLY FLOW ABOVE THE FRONTAL INVERSION MAY UNDERGO A MODEST
INCREASE SUNDAY NIGHT AHEAD OF THE NEXT SHORTWAVE TROUGH THAT WILL
MOVE INTO THE LOWER MS VALLEY SUNDAY EVENING. RESULTING MODEST
ISENTROPIC ASCENT MIGHT CONTRIBUTE TO A FEW STORMS FORMING OVERNIGHT
MAINLY NORTH OF THE BOUNDARY FROM A PORTION OF LOWER MS VALLEY INTO
THE SERN STATES. MID-LEVEL LAPSE RATES FROM 7-7.5 C/KM AND EFFECTIVE
SHEAR MAY BE SUFFICIENT FOR SOME THREAT FOR HAIL. OVERALL THREAT
DOES NOT APPEAR TO WARRANT MORE THAN 5% SEVERE PROBABILITIES.
..DIAL.. 03/26/2011
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