Wednesday, March 16, 2011

DAY48SVR: Nws Storm Prediction Center Norman Ok

ACUS48 KWNS 160831
SWOD48
SPC AC 160830

DAY 4-8 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0330 AM CDT WED MAR 16 2011

VALID 191200Z - 241200Z

...DISCUSSION...

BOTH THE ECMWF AND GFS ARE IN FAIRLY GOOD AGREEMENT REGARDING THE
LARGE SCALE EVOLUTION OF A PRONOUNCED WRN U.S. TROUGH INTO THE
DAY4-5 TIME FRAME. IT APPEARS NRN/CNTRL PLAINS RIDGING WILL FLATTEN
CONSIDERABLY BY SATURDAY AS BROAD SWLY FLOW AT MID LEVELS
OVERSPREADS THE HIGH PLAINS INDUCING LEE TROUGHING ACROSS ERN
CO...SWD ALONG THE NM/TX BORDER. ALTHOUGH LATEST MODEL GUIDANCE
MAINTAINS ONLY MODEST INSTABILITY ACROSS THE WARM SECTOR IT WOULD
SEEM THAT HEATING ACROSS THE HIGH PLAINS SHOULD ENCOURAGE AT LEAST
ISOLATED TSTM DEVELOPMENT...SOME OF IT SUPERCELLULAR...DURING THE
LATE AFTERNOON/EVENING HOURS. MORE SUBSTANTIAL HEIGHT FALLS COULD
OVERSPREAD THE CNTRL/SRN PLAINS SUN IF THE ECMWF IS CORRECT. THIS
SCENARIO WOULD ALSO SUPPORT A THREAT FOR ORGANIZED SEVERE
THUNDERSTORMS PRE-DRYLINE...ALONG/SOUTH OF WARM FRONT.

DETAILS BEYOND DAY5 ARE JUST TOO UNCERTAIN REGARDING CONVECTIVE
EVOLUTION AND MOISTURE/INSTABILITY FLUXES.

..DARROW.. 03/16/2011

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