Thursday, March 17, 2011

DAY48SVR: Nws Storm Prediction Center Norman Ok

ACUS48 KWNS 170833
SWOD48
SPC AC 170832

DAY 4-8 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0332 AM CDT THU MAR 17 2011

VALID 201200Z - 251200Z

...DISCUSSION...

ECMWF AND GFS ARE SIMILAR IN THEIR EVOLUTION OF A WRN U.S. TROUGH
EARLY NEXT WEEK. THIS FEATURE WILL EVENTUALLY BREAK DOWN THE UPPER
RIDGE NOTED EAST OF THE ROCKIES THOUGH SUSTAINED SLY FLOW ACROSS THE
SRN PLAINS WILL NOT PROVE PARTICULARLY EFFICIENT IN ALLOWING
MARITIME TROPICAL AIRMASS TO RETURN INLAND...PRIMARILY DUE TO A
STUBBORN SFC RIDGE OVER THE GOM. ALTHOUGH THE WARM SECTOR AIRMASS
WILL MOST LIKELY BE OF MODIFIED TROPICAL CONTENT...IT APPEARS
SUFFICIENT INSTABILITY WILL DEVELOP ACROSS PARTS OF KS INTO WRN OK
FOR POTENTIAL SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS. HEATING ALONG THE DRYLINE WILL
PROVE INSTRUMENTAL IN THE SRN DEVELOPMENT WHILE STRONGER FORCING
ALONG A WARM FRONT ACROSS NRN KS SHOULD ENCOURAGE DEVELOPMENT ACROSS
THIS REGION. HAVE LOWERED SEVERE PROBS ON DAY4 ACROSS THIS REGION
AS IT APPEARS THE STRONGER FORCING WILL BE DELAYED UNTIL LATER IN
THE PERIOD.

..DARROW.. 03/17/2011

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