SWOMCD
SPC MCD 061829
FLZ000-062030-
MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0196
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1229 PM CST SUN MAR 06 2011
AREAS AFFECTED...PARTS OF THE CNTRL/SRN FL PENINSULA
CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH UNLIKELY
VALID 061829Z - 062030Z
WEAK CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT IS UNDERWAY ACROSS INTERIOR INTO EAST
CENTRAL COASTAL SECTIONS OF THE FLORIDA PENINSULA. THIS IS
GENERALLY OCCURRING ALONG AND EAST OF A PRE-FRONTAL SURFACE TROUGH
...AS BOUNDARY LAYER HEATING AND MOISTENING CONTRIBUTES TO WEAKENING
MID-LEVEL INHIBITION. AS A SIGNIFICANT SHORT WAVE IMPULSE CONTINUES
TO LIFT NORTHEASTWARD TO THE LEE OF THE APPALACHIANS...VEERING OF
LOW-LEVEL FLOW FIELDS IS EXPECTED TO FOCUS LOW-LEVEL CONVERGENCE
NEAR/EAST OF LAKE OKEECHOBEE INTO THE VERO BEACH AND PALM BEACH
AREAS BY 20-22Z. IN THE PRESENCE OF MODERATELY STRONG
DESTABILIZATION...WITH MIXED LAYER CAPE NOW INCREASING IN EXCESS OF
1000 J/KG...THIS MAY BECOME SUFFICIENT TO SUPPORT THE DEVELOPMENT OF
ISOLATED TO SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS. IF THIS OCCURS...RELATIVE COOL
MID LEVEL TEMPERATURES AND SHEAR BENEATH 30+ KT 500 MB FLOW COULD
PROMOTE THE RISK FOR HAIL. ALTHOUGH PROBABILITIES ARE LOW...THE
POTENTIAL THAT SOME OF THIS ACTIVITY COULD AT LEAST BRIEFLY EXCEED
SEVERE LIMITS MAY NOT BE COMPLETELY NEGLIGIBLE.
..KERR.. 03/06/2011
...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...
ATTN...WFO...MFL...MLB...TBW...
LAT...LON 27178110 27778076 27818037 27087993 26628006 26338028
26238075 26578112 27178110
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