Sunday, March 6, 2011

MESO: Mesoscale Discussion 0197

ACUS11 KWNS 062049
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 062049
NCZ000-SCZ000-062215-

MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0197
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0249 PM CST SUN MAR 06 2011

AREAS AFFECTED...FAR NERN SC...ERN NC

CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH UNLIKELY

VALID 062049Z - 062215Z

INCREASING CONVECTIVE COVERAGE OVER FAR NERN SC WILL MOVE NEWD
ACROSS ERN NC DURING THE NEXT FEW HRS. ISOLATED DAMAGING WIND GUSTS
AND A TORNADO WILL BE POSSIBLE. THOUGH A WW IS NOT ANTICIPATED AT
THIS TIME...TRENDS WILL CONTINUE TO BE MONITORED.

MESOANALYSIS INDICATES A SURFACE LOW MOVING ACROSS N-CNTRL NC AND
TOWARD ERN VA AT 20Z...WITH A NOTABLE PRESSURE FALL/RISE COUPLET
STRADDLING A COLD FRONT EXTENDING SWD ACROSS FAR NERN SC. THIS
DYNAMIC FORCING APPEARS TO BE ASSOCIATED WITH MOBILE S/W TROUGH
LIFTING NEWD ACROSS THE COASTAL PLAIN...AND IS AIDING IN RAPID
DESTABILIZATION AS IT OVERSPREADS LOW 60S SURFACE DEWPOINTS. AS A
RESULT...LOW-TOPPED CONVECTION IS BEGINNING TO DEEPEN ALONG THE COLD
FRONT...WITH LIGHTNING STRIKES RECENTLY OBSERVED. THOUGH MLCAPE
VALUES ARE NOT EXPECTED TO EXCEED 500 J/KG...THE STRONG FORCING
COMBINED WITH FAVORABLE EFFECTIVE BULK SHEAR /NEAR 40 KT/ MAY FAVOR
A FEW ORGANIZED THUNDERSTORMS. THESE STORMS ARE EXPECTED TO QUICKLY
MOVE NE ACROSS ERN NC DURING THE REMAINDER OF THE AFTERNOON AND
EARLY EVENING...AND WILL POSE SOME THREAT FOR DAMAGING WIND GUSTS.
IN ADDITION...LTX VWP RECENTLY SAMPLED A 50 KT SWLY LLJ...WHICH WAS
CONTRIBUTING TOWARD 0-1 KM BULK SHEAR VALUES OF 30 KT. THUS...A
TORNADO CANNOT BE RULED OUT.

..GARNER.. 03/06/2011

...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...

ATTN...WFO...AKQ...MHX...RAH...ILM...

LAT...LON 36487691 36187574 35347550 34667646 33927793 33117920
33717971 35197939 36487691

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