SWOMCD
SPC MCD 081854
MSZ000-LAZ000-ARZ000-TXZ000-081930-
MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0205
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1254 PM CST TUE MAR 08 2011
AREAS AFFECTED...LA...SRN AR...AND PARTS OF CENTRAL/SWRN MS
CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...TORNADO WATCH LIKELY
VALID 081854Z - 081930Z
TORNADO WATCH WILL BE COORDINATED SOON FOR PARTS OF SRN LA INTO SWRN
MS...GIVEN SUBSTANTIAL WEAKENING OF THE CAP PER THE SPECIAL 18Z LCH
SOUNDING AND STRONG LOW LEVEL AND DEEP LAYER SHEAR WITHIN
DESTABILIZING AIR MASS. A SEVERE TSTM WATCH IS POSSIBLE FARTHER N
ACROSS PARTS OF NRN LA/SRN AR INTO CENTRAL MS FOR PRIMARILY A HAIL
THREAT THIS AFTERNOON.
TSTM COVERAGE SHOULD GRADUALLY INCREASE ACROSS NRN LA/SRN AR INTO
CENTRAL AND SWRN MS THIS AFTERNOON...WHILE ADDITIONAL STORMS DEVELOP
OVER SRN LA. INITIAL THREAT WILL BE HAIL GIVEN ELEVATED TSTMS WITH
MUCH OF THIS EARLY-MID AFTERNOON ACTIVITY. HOWEVER... STORMS
DEVELOPING OVER SRN LA ARE LOCATED INVOF THE NWD MOVING WARM
FRONT...AND ARE LIKELY SURFACE BASED OR NEARLY SO.
LATE MORNING/EARLY AFTERNOON SURFACE ANALYSES SHOWED THE WARM FRONT
HAD MOVED A LITTLE FARTHER INLAND ACROSS THE SRN EXTENT OF LA AND
EXTENDED NWWD THROUGH E TX TO AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE OVER NORTH
CENTRAL TX. SURFACE DEWPOINT TEMPERATURES IN THE UPPER 60S WERE
LOCATED AS FAR INLAND AS LCH-LFT AND WWD INTO SE TX...WHILE MID 60S
VALUES EXTENDED FROM POE TO BTR. REGIONAL RADAR IMAGERY SHOWED
TSTMS LOCATED E/SE OF LFT AND W OF BTR...WITH THIS ACTIVITY
DEVELOPING ALONG THE ERN EXTENT OF GREATER CLOUD COVER WHERE SURFACE
HEATING IS STRONGER...AIDING IN BOOSTING INSTABILITY /MUCAPE
1000-1500 J PER KG/. THERMODYNAMICS AND INCREASING EFFECTIVE BULK
SHEAR /40-50 KT/ WILL SUPPORT ORGANIZED STORMS WITH THREATS FOR HAIL
AND DAMAGING WINDS. ANY STORM FORMING NEAR THE WARM FRONT WILL HAVE
A GREATER POTENTIAL TO PRODUCE A TORNADO...GIVEN LOW LEVEL HODOGRAPH
CURVATURE PER 18Z LCH VAD.
FARTHER N...STORMS DEVELOPING OVER NRN LA AND ACROSS AR INTO SWRN TO
CENTRAL MS WILL LIKELY REMAIN ELEVATED THROUGH THE AFTERNOON GIVEN
DISTANCE FROM WARM SECTOR. FAVORABLE THERMODYNAMICS /STEEP MIDLEVEL
LAPSE RATES ATOP RETURNING LOW LEVEL MOISTURE/ AND INCREASING
EFFECTIVE BULK SHEAR AS STRONGER MIDLEVEL WINDS SPREAD EWD WITH
APPROACHING SRN PLAINS TROUGH WILL SUPPORT STORM ORGANIZATION. HAIL
WILL BE THE PRIMARY THREAT...SOME SEVERE...WITH THE STRONGER/
LONG-LIVED CELLS.
..PETERS.. 03/08/2011
...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...
ATTN...WFO...JAN...LIX...LZK...LCH...SHV...
LAT...LON 30019168 30199270 30719350 31879398 33339376 34029168
33369008 32908911 31358930 30159003 29769030 30019168
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