MESO: Mesoscale Discussion 0206

ACUS11 KWNS 081912
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 081911
TXZ000-OKZ000-082115-

MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0206
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0111 PM CST TUE MAR 08 2011

AREAS AFFECTED...NERN TX...EXTREME SERN OK

CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH POSSIBLE

VALID 081911Z - 082115Z

AT LEAST ISOLATED SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED TO FORM IN THE
NEXT 1-2 HRS AND A TORNADO WATCH MAY BE REQUIRED.

VISIBLE SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS CLEARING NOW ALONG AND AHEAD OF THE
DRYLINE ESPECIALLY OVER N CNTRL TX WHERE TEMPERATURES HAVE RISEN
WELL INTO THE 70S F. MEANWHILE...CU HAVE BEEN INCREASING FROM THE
SURFACE LOW OVER S CNTRL OK SWD ALONG THE DRYLINE WHERE DEWPOINTS
ARE IN THE 60S F.

SURFACE OBSERVATIONS SHOW STRONG VEERING OF THE WINDS FROM THE W
SIDE OF THE METROPLEX WWD...INDICATIVE OF STEEP LOW LEVEL LAPSE
RATES AND MIXING. HERE...HIGH BASED CU WERE DEVELOPING AS
WELL...BUT IN A REGION WITH LITTLE INSTABILITY FOR STORMS.

CONVERGENCE IS EXPECTED TO INCREASE ALONG THE DRYLINE AS IT MIXES
EWD. CONTINUED HEATING AND ADVECTION OF BOUNDARY LAYER MOISTURE NWD
SHOULD SUPPORT AT LEAST ISOLATED SUPERCELLS CAPABLE OF
HAIL...PERHAPS VERY LARGE...AS WELL AS A FEW TORNADOES GIVEN
SUBSTANTIAL LOW LEVEL SHEAR.

EWD PROGRESSION OF STORMS AND TORNADO THREAT MAY BE SOMEWHAT LIMITED
BY MUCH COOLER AIR TO THE E...WHILE CAPPING WILL LIMIT DEVELOPMENT
SWD.

..JEWELL.. 03/08/2011

...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...

ATTN...WFO...SHV...TSA...FWD...OUN...

LAT...LON 32339702 33129686 34059680 34629681 34739628 34179543
33879489 33479474 32539479 31809522 31599591 31579667
31619698 31949716 32339702

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