SWOMCD
SPC MCD 101751
NCZ000-VAZ000-SCZ000-101945-
MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0220
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1151 AM CST THU MAR 10 2011
AREAS AFFECTED...NERN SC...ERN NC...CNTRL AND SERN VA
CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH LIKELY
VALID 101751Z - 101945Z
THREAT FOR ISOLATED DAMAGING WIND COULD INCREASE WITH SHALLOW
CONVECTION DEVELOPING THIS AFTERNOON. SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WATCH MAY
BE NEEDED SOON FOR PARTS OF CNTRL AND ERN NC AND CNTRL/SRN VA.
LINE OF SHALLOW CONVECTION IS DEVELOPING ALONG OR JUST EAST OF A
PROGRESSIVE COLD FRONT FROM SRN VA SWD THROUGH W-CNTRL NC THROUGH
E-CNTRL SC. ANOTHER LINE OF PRE-FRONTAL CONVECTION IS INCREASING
FROM THE GULF STREAM NWD THROUGH SERN NC. ZONE OF FRONTAL FORCING
WILL BE MAINTAINED BY A STRONG NEWD EJECTING SHORTWAVE TROUGH.
WIDESPREAD CLOUDS AND POOR LAPSE RATES WILL LIMIT MUCAPE TO AOB 500
J/KG...AND SHALLOW CONVECTIVE LAYER DEPTH SUGGESTS ACTIVITY MAY NOT
PRODUCE MUCH LIGHTNING. DESPITE LACK OF DIABATIC WARMING...SOME
INCREASE IN INTENSITY MAY OCCUR AS THE CONVECTION INTERCEPTS MOIST
AXIS ACROSS CNTRL NC AND SRN VA WHERE DEWPOINTS ARE NEAR 60 F.
STRONG EFFECTIVE SHEAR AND 40-50 KT FLOW JUST ABOVE THE SURFACE MAY
PROMOTE BOWING SEGMENTS AND A THREAT OF ISOLATED DAMAGING WIND
WITHIN THE HEAVIER...FORCED LINE OF DEVELOPING SHOWERS.
..DIAL.. 03/10/2011
...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...
ATTN...WFO...AKQ...MHX...LWX...RAH...ILM...RNK...
LAT...LON 34147950 37397962 38027793 36127731 33987852 34147950
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