Thursday, March 24, 2011

MESO: Mesoscale Discussion 0269

ACUS11 KWNS 242029
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 242028
TXZ000-242200-

MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0269
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0328 PM CDT THU MAR 24 2011

AREAS AFFECTED...PORTIONS OF WEST TX

CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH POSSIBLE

VALID 242028Z - 242200Z

AN ISOLATED TSTM OR TWO COULD DEVELOP THIS AFTERNOON ACROSS PORTIONS
OF WEST TX. ANY STORM THAT FORMS COULD BECOME SEVERE. TRENDS IN THIS
AREA ARE BEING MONITORED FOR THE POSSIBLE ISSUANCE OF A WW LATER
THIS AFTERNOON.

PARTIALLY MODIFIED GULF MOISTURE /CHARACTERIZED BY DEWPOINTS IN THE
50S/ IS RETREATING NWD BEHIND A WARM FRONT OVER PORTIONS OF WEST
TEXAS...WHILE A DRYLINE EXTENDS WEST OF THE SERN NM/WRN TX BORDER
INTO ERN PORTIONS OF THE TRANS-PECOS REGION. THIS IS RESULTING IN A
TRIANGULAR-SHAPED WEDGE OF ENHANCED MOISTURE OVER PORTIONS OF THE
PERMIAN BASIN INTO PORTIONS OF THE TX SOUTH PLAINS...WHERE AMPLE
INSOLATION TODAY HAS YIELDED SFC TEMPS IN THE UPPER 70S TO MIDDLE
80S. IN THIS REGION...RECENT SATELLITE IMAGERY INDICATES INCREASING
BOUNDARY-LAYER CUMULUS...COINCIDENT WITH SBCAPE VALUES OF 500-1000
J/KG PER RUC OBJECTIVE ANALYSIS. AS MOISTURE CONTINUES TO RETREAT
NWD DUE TO CONTINUED LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE ADVECTION...THE
MOIST/UNSTABLE SECTOR IS FORECAST TO EXPAND FARTHER NORTH ACROSS THE
TX SOUTH PLAINS.

AN ISOLATED STORM FOR TWO COULD FORM IN THE NEXT FEW HOURS...AS
SUBTLE FORCING TRANSLATES NEWD OUT OF THE DESERT SOUTHWEST AND NWRN
MEXICO. MULTIPLE MEMBERS OF HIGH-RESOLUTION WRF GUIDANCE SUGGEST
THAT ANY CONVECTIVE INITIATION WILL OCCUR ON AN ISOLATED BASIS...AT
MOST...GIVEN THE ABSENCE OF STRONGER DEEP-LAYER FORCING.
HOWEVER...WITH STRONG MID-LEVEL SWLY FLOW OVERSPREADING THE REGION
/SWLY WINDS OF 50 KT AT 3 KM AGL AND 70 KT AT 5 KM AGL PER TCU
PROFILER/...MORE THAN ADEQUATE DEEP-LAYER VERTICAL WIND SHEAR WILL
BE FAVORABLE FOR SUPERCELLULAR STRUCTURES...WITH AN ATTENDANT THREAT
FOR DAMAGING WINDS AND LARGE HAIL. ENHANCED LOW-LEVEL VERTICAL WIND
SHEAR INVOF THE SFC WARM FRONT IS YIELDING EFFECTIVE SRH VALUES
AROUND 200 M2/S2...WHICH COULD POTENTIALLY YIELD A TORNADO THREAT AS
WELL WITH ANY RIGHT-MOVING STORM NEAR THE WARM FRONT. ANY SEVERE
THREAT WILL REMAIN CONDITIONAL...AND TRENDS WILL BE CONTINUE TO BE
MONITORED FOR CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT AND A POSSIBLE WW.

..COHEN.. 03/24/2011

...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...

ATTN...WFO...SJT...LUB...MAF...

LAT...LON 33070254 34040177 33950064 33360002 32419952 31599965
31170023 31080115 31440223 32570264 33070254

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