SWOMCD
SPC MCD 282149
FLZ000-282245-
MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0300
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0449 PM CDT MON MAR 28 2011
AREAS AFFECTED...SRN FL PENINSULA
CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH UNLIKELY
VALID 282149Z - 282245Z
ISOLATED STRONG STORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE SRN
FL PENINSULA THROUGH 00Z. A WW IS NOT NECESSARY.
PERSISTENT NUMEROUS CONVECTION OVER THE CNTRL FL PENINSULA HAS
RESULTED IN AN EXPANSIVE COLD POOL THAT FOLLOWS A SWWD-MOVING
OUTFLOW BOUNDARY THAT EXTENDS FROM 35 MILES NW OF FMY TO MIA.
MODERATE SWLY FLOW ATOP THIS COLD POOL IS INDUCING ISENTROPIC
ASCENT...WITH SCATTERED CONVECTION CONTINUOUSLY REGENERATING ALONG
AND JUST BEHIND THE OUTFLOW BOUNDARY. DEEPER/MORE PERSISTENT CORES
HAVE BEEN NOTED ACROSS BROWARD COUNTY...AND THIS ACTIVITY WILL
LIKELY TRANSLATE FARTHER SOUTH TOWARD METRO MIAMI IN CONJUNCTION
WITH THE MOTION OF THE OUTFLOW BOUNDARY. RUC OBJECTIVE ANALYSIS
INDICATES A MODERATELY UNSTABLE AIR MASS /MLCAPE VALUES FROM 1000 TO
2000 J PER KG/ NEAR AND AHEAD OF THE OUTFLOW BOUNDARY...WITH STRONG
MID-LEVEL FLOW PROMOTING CLOUD-BEARING SHEAR MAGNITUDES OF 50 TO 60
KT. THESE PARAMETERS COULD PROMOTE OCCASIONALLY ORGANIZED STORM
STRUCTURES...WITH THE POTENTIAL FOR STRONG WIND GUSTS AND POSSIBLY
SMALL HAIL...ESPECIALLY AS THE OUTFLOW BOUNDARY MERGES WITH THE SEA
BREEZE GENERATED OFF THE SWRN FL COAST. WHILE AN ISOLATED SEVERE
STORM CANNOT BE ENTIRELY RULED OUT...THE ABSENCE OF STRONGER
DEEP-LAYER FORCING WILL LIKELY PRECLUDE A GREATER THREAT FOR
ORGANIZED SEVERE STORMS...AND THUS A WW IS NOT NECESSARY. AFTER
00Z...STORMS WILL LIKELY WEAKEN AS DIABATIC COOLING COMMENCES.
..COHEN.. 03/28/2011
...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...
ATTN...WFO...MFL...KEY...TBW...
LAT...LON 25098054 25178101 25878167 26388215 26688226 26948225
26938181 26798131 26558084 25968007 25408014 25098054
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