Monday, March 28, 2011

MESO: Mesoscale Discussion 0301

ACUS11 KWNS 282213
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 282212
FLZ000-GAZ000-282315-

MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0301
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0512 PM CDT MON MAR 28 2011

AREAS AFFECTED...ERN FL PANHANDLE / NRN FL PENINSULA / FAR SRN GA

CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH UNLIKELY

VALID 282212Z - 282315Z

ISOLATED STRONG TO SEVERE STORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE THROUGH 00Z ACROSS
PORTIONS OF THE ERN FL PANHANDLE...NRN FL PENINSULA...AND FAR SRN
GA. A WW IS NOT CURRENTLY ANTICIPATED.

SFC ANALYSIS AT 20Z DEPICTS A WARM FRONT DRAPED ACROSS THE FAR NRN
FL PENINSULA EXTENDING INTO A LOW 20 MILES NE OF PFN...WITH A COLD
FRONT EXTENDING SWWD FROM THE LOW ACROSS THE COASTAL/OFFSHORE WATERS
OF THE NERN GULF OF MEXICO. ENHANCED CONVERGENCE NEAR THE SFC LOW
HAS RESULTED IN RECENT CONVECTIVE INITIATION...INCLUDING SPLITTING
SUPERCELL STRUCTURES...OVER LIBERTY/CALHOUN COUNTIES. THE LEFT
MEMBER RECENTLY PRODUCED QUARTER SIZE HAIL NEAR BLOUNTSTOWN IN
CALHOUN COUNTY. THIS ACTIVITY WILL LIKELY PERSIST IN THE
SHORT-TERM...WITH ADDITIONAL DEVELOPMENT POSSIBLE NEAR THE WARM
FRONT. MODERATE INSTABILITY /1000 TO 1500 J PER KG/ AND EFFECTIVE
BULK SHEAR MAGNITUDES OF 40 TO 50 KT PER RUC OBJECTIVE ANALYSIS
COULD SUPPORT OCCASIONALLY ORGANIZED STORM /SUPERCELLULAR/
STRUCTURES. AN ATTENDANT THREAT FOR DAMAGING WINDS AND LARGE HAIL
WILL OCCUR...ESPECIALLY WITH ANY STORMS INVOF THE WARM FRONT...WHERE
GREATER LOW-LEVEL WIND SHEAR WILL BE PRESENT. DUE TO THE ANTICIPATED
LOW COVERAGE OF STORMS...A WW IS NOT CURRENTLY ANTICIPATED.

..COHEN.. 03/28/2011

...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...

ATTN...WFO...JAX...TAE...

LAT...LON 30048200 29848388 29788526 30608561 30968461 31008233
30048200

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