SWOMCD
SPC MCD 282228
TXZ000-290100-
MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0302
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0528 PM CDT MON MAR 28 2011
AREAS AFFECTED...PORTIONS SW TX...CONCHO VALLEY REGION AND EDWARDS
PLATEAU TO MIDDLE RIO GRANDE VALLEY
CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH UNLIKELY
VALID 282228Z - 290100Z
VERY LOW SVR POTENTIAL EXISTS FOR A FEW HOURS OVER THIS
REGION...WITH ONE OR TWO SHORT-LIVED BUT POTENTIALLY HAIL/GUST
PRODUCING TSTMS POSSIBLE. WW NOT EXPECTED DUE TO LIMITED
COVERAGE/DURATION AND CONDITIONAL NATURE OF THREAT.
SFC MESOANALYSIS SHOWS WAVY/QUASISTATIONARY FRONTAL ZONE FROM PADRE
ISLAND NWWD BETWEEN LRD-COT...TO NEAR JCT...SJT..MAF...THEN BECOMING
EWD-MOVING WARM FRONT/DRYLINE HYBRID FARTHER N ACROSS EXTREME WRN
SOUTH-PLAINS/PANHANDLE REGIONS. DRYLINE SEPARATES FROM FRONT OVER
GLASSCOCK COUNTY AND EXTENDS SWWD BETWEEN FST-6R6...THEN SWD BETWEEN
BIG BEND NATIONAL PARK AND SERRANIAS DEL BURRO RANGE OF NRN
COAHUILA. STG HEATING OF HIGHER TERRAIN OVER NRN MEX...WITHIN WRN
FRINGE OF MOIST SECTOR...HAS LED TO FORMATION OF A COUPLE CB OVER
THAT REGION...WHICH MAY MOVE EWD TO NEAR RIO GRANDE IN ENVIRONMENT
FAVORABLE FOR MRGL SUPERCELL ORGANIZATION...WITH 30-40 KT EFFECTIVE
SHEAR MAGNITUDE AND STG STORM-RELATIVE WINDS AT ANVIL LEVEL.
ACTIVITY SHOULD WEAKEN WITH EWD EXTENT DUE TO COMBINATION OF MUCH
STRONGER CAPPING FOR SFC-BASE PARCELS OVER LOWER ELEVATIONS...AND
ONSET OF DIABATIC COOLING BY THE TIME TSTMS REACH THAT AREA.
FARTHER N...TWO AREAS OF MDT CU DEVELOPMENT ARE EVIDENT IN VIS
IMAGERY -- STERLING/GLASSCOCK COUNTIES NEAR TRIPLE POINT AND MOIST
AXIS...AND ALONG FRONT FROM KIMBLE-RUNNELS COUNTIES. MODIFIED RAOBS
AND MODEL SOUNDINGS INDICATE RELATIVE WEAKNESS IN MLCINH ALONG FRONT
OVER THESE REGIONS...WITH SFC DEW POINTS MID-UPPER 50S CONTRIBUTING
TO MLCAPE 1500-2000 J/KG. ALONG FRONT...BACKED SFC WINDS YIELD
VEERING FLOW WITH HEIGHT AND LOCALLY ENLARGED HODOGRAPHS...WITH 0-3
KM SRH 150-250 J/KG. THOUGH THE PROBABILITY IS NOT TOO GREAT...ANY
SUSTAINED TSTM THAT CAN DEVELOP MAY ROTATE WITH ACCORDINGLY ENHANCED
HAIL POTENTIAL...AND ALSO SVR GUSTS POSSIBLE BEFORE DARK GIVEN
WELL-MIXED SUBCLOUD LAYER.
..EDWARDS.. 03/28/2011
...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...
ATTN...WFO...CRP...EWX...SJT...MAF...
LAT...LON 31240138 31610177 32120168 32300125 32300072 31980001
31649951 31339918 30909864 30409873 30139978 29760033
28829980 27779980 28260025 28670048 29120067 29150079
29250078 29510116 29640120 29560135 29770143 30450142
31240138
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