SWOMCD
SPC MCD 312222
FLZ000-312345-
MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0324
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0522 PM CDT THU MAR 31 2011
AREAS AFFECTED...CNTRL FL
CONCERNING...TORNADO WATCH 81...
VALID 312222Z - 312345Z
THE SEVERE WEATHER THREAT FOR TORNADO WATCH 81 CONTINUES.
AN ISOLATED TORNADO AND WIND DAMAGE THREAT WILL LIKELY CONTINUE
EARLY THIS EVENING ACROSS THE CNTRL FL PENINSULA. WW ISSUANCE TO
REPLACE WW 81 WILL BE CONSIDERED AS THE EXPIRATION OF THE CURRENT
TORNADO WATCH APPROACHES.
A SLOW MOVING LINE OF THUNDERSTORMS EMBEDDED WITH SOME STRONGER
CONVECTIVE ELEMENTS IS LOCATED IN CNTRL FL ORIENTED PARALLEL TO A 40
TO 50 KT LOW-LEVEL JET. THE AIRMASS JUST TO THE SOUTH OF THE LINE IS
CHARACTERIZED BY MODERATE INSTABILITY /MLCAPE VALUES OF 1200 TO 1800
J/KG/ AND STRONG DEEP LAYER SHEAR /0-6 KM SHEAR OF 60 TO 70 KT. THIS
COMBINED 30 TO 40 KT OF FLOW JUST BELOW 1 KM AGL EVIDENT ON THE
WSR-88D VWP FROM MELBOURNE FL SHOULD BE ENOUGH FOR A WIND DAMAGE
THREAT WITH THE MORE INTENSE CELLS EMBEDDED IN THE LINE. ALTHOUGH
THE LOW-LEVEL FLOW IS VEERED WLY...ENOUGH SPEED SHEAR EXISTS IN THE
BOUNDARY LAYER FOR AN ISOLATED TORNADO THREAT. THE THREAT MAY
PERSIST BEYOND WATCH EXPIRATION AND WW ISSUANCE MAY BE NEEDED
ESPECIALLY IF THE LINE CAN INTENSIFY AND REORGANIZE EARLY THIS
EVENING.
..BROYLES.. 03/31/2011
...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...
ATTN...WFO...MFL...MLB...TBW...
LAT...LON 28308278 28318048 26577994 26568219 28308278
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