Friday, April 1, 2011

DAY1SVR: Day 1 Convective Outlook

ACUS01 KWNS 010503
SWODY1
SPC AC 010501

DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1201 AM CDT FRI APR 01 2011

VALID 011200Z - 021200Z

...NO SVR TSTM AREAS FORECAST...

...SYNOPSIS...
FULL-LATITUDE TROUGH OVER THE ERN THIRD OF THE COUNTRY WILL BE
REINFORCED BY A MID-LEVEL JETSTREAK DIGGING INTO THE MIDWEST/OH VLY
TODAY/TONIGHT AS THE STRONGER LEAD WAVE CLOSES INTO A LOW OVER NEW
ENGLAND. LEADING EDGE OF A CONTINENTAL AIR MASS WILL CONTINUE SWD
INTO THE FL STRAITS TODAY...WITH TRAILING PORTIONS OF THE FRONT
REDEVELOPING NWD THROUGH THE SRN PLAINS. A NEW COLD FRONT WILL
SURGE SEWD BEHIND THE MIDWEST SYSTEM...REACHING OK/TX BY TONIGHT.

...NCNTRL/E TX...
SUBTLE MID-LEVEL SHORTWAVE TROUGH APPEARS EMBEDDED IN THE FAST WNW
FLOW REGIME OVER THE HIGH PLAINS EARLY THIS MORNING AND IS EXPECTED
TO EVOLVE DOWNSTREAM INTO TX LATER TODAY. AHEAD OF THIS
WAVE...MODIFIED GULF MOISTURE GATHERING OVER S TX WILL BE
TRANSPORTED NWD WITH A FEW HUNDRED J PER KG MLCAPE POSSIBLE ALONG/E
OF THE DRYLINE/COLD FRONT IN NCNTRL/E TX BY LATE AFTERNOON WITH
LITTLE INHIBITION. HIGH-BASED TSTM INITIATION WILL BE POSSIBLE
PRIOR TO SUNSET IN NCNTRL TX...ALTHOUGH CAPE PROFILES WILL NOT BE
ROBUST. IF A STORM CAN BECOME SUSTAINED...GUSTY AND POSSIBLY SEVERE
WIND GUSTS COULD BE SUPPORTED BY THE RELATIVELY DRY SUB-CLOUD LAYER.
OTHERWISE...A FEW STORMS/CONVECTION WILL PROBABLY DEVELOP
DOWNSTREAM ACROSS E TX TOWARD THE LOWER MS VLY OVERNIGHT WITH VERY
LOW SEVERE PROBABILITIES.

...MIDWEST TO THE CNTRL APPALACHIANS...
ENERGETIC AND DEEP UNIDIRECTIONAL WNW REGIME WILL EXIST ACROSS THE
REGION THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT...ACCOMPANIED BY MID-LEVEL LAPSE
RATES IN EXCESS OF 7 DEG C PER KM. COUPLED WITH PWATS INCREASING TO
AROUND A HALF OF AN INCH AND MODEST FORCING WITHIN EXIT REGION OF AN
APPROACH 70 KT MID-LEVEL JET STREAK...POTENTIAL FOR TSTMS WILL EXIST
DURING THE HEIGHT OF DIURNAL HEATING ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE MIDWEST.
ACTIVITY WILL STREAK SEWD TOWARD THE CNTRL APPALACHIANS BY
NIGHTFALL. SOME STORMS MAY PRODUCE SMALL HAIL AND/OR GUSTY
WINDS...BUT SVR STORMS ARE NOT EXPECTED.

...SRN FL...
LINGERING BANDS OF CONVECTION/ISOLATED TSTMS WILL CONTINUE SWD
THROUGH EXTREME SRN FL/KEYS...ESPECIALLY EARLY TODAY AS THE AXIS OF
THE MID-LEVEL TROUGH SKIRTS THE REGION. STORMS MAY CONTAIN GUSTY
WINDS...BUT LACK OF ROBUST INSTABILITY WILL PRECLUDE WIDESPREAD SVR
RISKS.

..RACY/GARNER.. 04/01/2011

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