SWODY1
SPC AC 020535
DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1235 AM CDT SAT APR 02 2011
VALID 021200Z - 031200Z
...NO SVR TSTM AREAS FORECAST...
...SYNOPSIS...
MID-LEVEL WAVE OVER THE OH VALLEY WILL EJECT EWD TODAY AS THE NEXT
TROUGH MOVES INTO THE PAC NW AND INTERMOUNTAIN W. THE FRONT
FOLLOWING THE FORMER SYSTEM WILL STALL OVER CNTRL TX AND DEEP S
EARLY TODAY...THEN REDEVELOP NWD INTO THE UPPER MIDWEST BY LATE
SATURDAY NIGHT. A COLD FRONT ASSOCIATED WITH THE IMPULSE MOVING
INTO THE NWRN STATES WILL SWEEP INTO THE NRN ROCKIES AND GREAT BASIN
BY THE END OF THE PERIOD.
...INTERMOUNTAIN W...
A STREAM OF PWATS IN EXCESS OF A HALF OF AN INCH WILL ADVECT NEWD
INTO ERN NV...UT AND PARTS OF ERN ID AHEAD OF A STRENGTHENING COLD
FRONT BY SATURDAY AFTN. THIS IN COMBINATION WITH INCREASING
LARGE-SCALE FORCING FOR ASCENT /150 M H5 HEIGHT FALLS/ AND STEEP
LAPSE RATES WILL YIELD BANDS/CLUSTERS OF CONVECTION/TSTMS
ALONG/AHEAD OF THE APPROACHING COLD FRONT. ALTHOUGH BUOYANCY WILL
NOT BE PARTICULARLY ROBUST...RELATIVELY DRY SUB-CLOUD LAYERS AND
MAGNITUDE OF ASCENT MAY AUGMENT PRODUCTION OF BOWING SEGMENTS WITH
ISOLATED SEVERE WIND GUSTS SATURDAY AFTN AND EVENING.
...UPPER MS RIVER VALLEY/MIDWEST...
STRONG SWLY LOW-LEVEL JET WILL DEVELOP OVER THE PLAINS LATER TODAY
AND TONIGHT AND TRANSPORT INCREASING AMOUNTS OF LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE
NWD. THIS MOISTURE WILL BE CAPPED BY A STOUT EML SPREADING ONTO THE
PLAINS AND PROSPECTS FOR SURFACE-BASED CONVECTION WILL BE LIMITED.
LATER IN THE PERIOD...A LOW PROBABILITY FOR ELEVATED TSTMS MAY
EVOLVE OVER PARTS OF THE UPPER MS RIVER VALLEY AS MOISTENING OCCURS
AT THE BASE OF THE EML/NOSE OF THE LLJ. SREF AND DETERMINISTIC
GUIDANCE HAVE BEEN TRENDING LESS WITH CONVECTIVE PROBABILITIES OVER
THE PAST SEVERAL RUNS AND IT NOW APPEARS THAT ANY ELEVATED SEVERE
HAIL THREAT WILL EVOLVE JUST BEYOND 12Z SUNDAY.
...MID-ATLANTIC REGION...
MID-LEVEL COLD POOL CHARACTERIZED BY H5 TEMPERATURES AT OR BELOW
MINUS 30 DEG C WILL TRANSLATE EWD ACROSS THE REGION THROUGH THIS
AFTERNOON. STEEP LAPSE RATES AND JUST ENOUGH MOISTURE WILL EXIST
FOR SCATTERED...LARGELY DIURNALLY-BASED TSTMS...SOME WITH SMALL
HAIL.
..RACY/GARNER.. 04/02/2011
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