SWODY1
SPC AC 070520
DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1220 AM CDT THU APR 07 2011
VALID 071200Z - 081200Z
...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS ACROSS PARTS OF ECNTRL KS INTO
CNTRL MO...
...ERN KS/MO...
EARLY MORNING WV IMAGERY APPEARS SUPPORTIVE OF 00Z MODEL GUIDANCE
REGARDING THE NEWD MOVEMENT OF SHORTWAVE TROUGH ACROSS THE SRN
ROCKIES TOWARD THE MID MS VALLEY REGION. THIS FEATURE IS EXPECTED
TO DAMPEN AS IT LIFTS ACROSS KS/MO DURING THE LATE AFTERNOON
HOURS...THOUGH IT WILL SERVE AS AN INSTIGATOR IN THE NWD RETURN OF
WARM SECTOR TO MUCH OF OK/AR/SRN MO. LATEST DATA SUGGEST A WELL
DEFINED WARM FRONT WILL RETREAT TO THE OK/KS BORDER...NEWD TO NEAR
STL BY 00Z WITH 50S SFC DEW POINTS COMMON SOUTH OF THE WIND SHIFT.
FORECAST SOUNDINGS ACROSS THE WARM SECTOR STRONGLY IMPLY PARCELS
WILL REMAIN CAPPED ALONG/AHEAD OF THE DRYLINE...AND WITH LARGE SCALE
FORCING EXPECTED TO FOCUS NORTH OF THE WARM FRONT...THE FOCUS FOR
POTENTIALLY ORGANIZED THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT WILL OCCUR NEAR I-70
FROM ECNTRL KS INTO CNTRL MO. BUOYANCY APPEARS ADEQUATE FOR ROBUST
ELEVATED CONVECTION CAPABLE OF PRODUCING HAIL...SOME OF IT MAY
EXCEED ONE INCH. EVEN SO THE CORRIDOR FOR SIGNIFICANT DEVELOPMENT
WILL REMAIN LIMITED TO THAT REGION JUST NORTH OF THE WARM FRONT AS
INSTABILITY WILL BE SOMEWHAT LIMITED DOWNSTREAM ACROSS ERN MO/IL.
...4-CORNERS REGION...
POWERFUL UPPER LOW WILL DIG SEWD INTO CNTRL CA LATE IN THE PERIOD
WITH A BELT OF STRONG FLOW ALOFT EXPECTED TO OVERSPREAD SRN CA INTO
UT. MUCH COOLER MID LEVEL TEMPERATURES WILL SAG SEWD INTO UT/AZ
ENHANCING LAPSE RATES FOR CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT...ESPECIALLY OVER
THE MOUNTAINS OF NRN AZ/SRN UT. STRONG HEATING ACROSS THE LOWER
ELEVATIONS OF SRN NV/AZ WILL ENHANCE THE UPSLOPE COMPONENT ACROSS
THE MOUNTAINS WHICH SHOULD AID CONVECTION BY MID-LATE AFTERNOON.
FORECAST SOUNDINGS EXHIBIT SBCAPE ON THE ORDER OF 500-600 J/KG AT
FLG BY 21Z WITH MORE THAN ADEQUATE FLOW FOR ROTATING UPDRAFTS. AT
THIS TIME IT APPEARS INSTABILITY WILL PROVE SUPPORTIVE OF AT LEAST
MARGINALLY SEVERE HAIL AND PERHAPS AN ISOLATED ONE INCH-TYPE REPORT
IN THE STRONGEST ACTIVITY.
..DARROW/HURLBUT.. 04/07/2011
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