SWODY1
SPC AC 130551
DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1251 AM CDT WED APR 13 2011
VALID 131200Z - 141200Z
...NO SVR TSTM AREAS FORECAST...
...SYNOPSIS...
CLOSED UPPER LOW OVER THE DELMARVA VICINITY IS EXPECTED TO OPEN AND
BEGIN TO ACCELERATE NORTHEASTWARD TOWARD THE CANADIAN MARITIMES BY
LATE IN THE PERIOD. IN ITS WAKE...A RELATIVELY LOW
AMPLITUDE/PROGRESSIVE LARGE SCALE PATTERN WILL PREVAIL OVER THE
MAJORITY OF THE CONUS WITH A SPLITTING UPPER TROUGH OVER THE EASTERN
PACIFIC/WESTERN STATES.
...COASTAL NEW ENGLAND...
IN ADVANCE OF THE NORTHEASTERN SEABOARD UPPER LOW...ISOLATED TSTMS
WILL REMAIN POSSIBLE ACROSS COASTAL PORTIONS OF SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND
THIS MORNING.
...WESTERN STATES...
TSTMS WILL BE POSSIBLE ACROSS THE INTERIOR WEST...ESPECIALLY THIS
AFTERNOON/EARLY EVENING ACROSS PORTIONS OF EASTERN NV AND ID INTO
UT...WHERE FORCING FOR ASCENT WILL BE AIDED/FOCUSED BY THE EXIT
REGION OF AN UPPER JET AND AN EASTWARD ADVANCING COLD FRONT. SOME OF
THE STORMS IN EASTERN NV AND UT MAY BE ACCOMPANIED BY GUSTY
WINDS/SMALL HAIL...BUT SEVERE PROBABILITIES DO NOT APPEAR WARRANTED
GIVEN THE LIMITED DEGREE OF PW/CAPE. A FEW TSTMS WILL ALSO BE
POSSIBLE ACROSS THE COASTAL PACIFIC NORTHWEST.
...CENTRAL PLAINS/MIDDLE MO VALLEY...
IN SPITE OF UPPER RIDGING/LIMITED LARGE SCALE FORCING AND RATHER
MODEST BOUNDARY LAYER MOISTURE /40S F SURFACE DEWPOINTS/ NEAR AND
SOUTHEAST OF A SOUTHWEST-NORTHEAST ORIENTED FRONTAL BOUNDARY...AN
ASSORTMENT OF NUMERICAL GUIDANCE IMPLY SOME POSSIBILITY FOR A FEW
TSTMS THIS AFTERNOON AMID A WELL-HEATED/MIXED BOUNDARY LAYER.
PROBABLY MORE LIKELY...ISOLATED ELEVATED TSTMS MAY FORM TONIGHT AS A
MODEST SOUTHERLY LOW LEVEL JET INCREASES AND ELEVATED MOISTURE
TRANSPORT OCCURS TO A DEGREE.
..GUYER.. 04/13/2011
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