SWODY1
SPC AC 140558
DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1258 AM CDT THU APR 14 2011
VALID 141200Z - 151200Z
...THERE IS A MDT RISK OF SVR TSTMS FROM SERN KS THROUGH ERN OK INTO
WRN AR AND EXTREME NERN TX...
...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS FROM A PORTION OF THE CNTRL AND
SRN PLAINS INTO THE LOWER MS VALLEY REGION...
...SYNOPSIS...
SPLIT FLOW UPPER PATTERN WILL PREVAIL THURSDAY WITH A POTENT
SHORTWAVE TROUGH CURRENTLY OVER THE GREAT BASIN EMERGING FROM SRN
BRANCH AND CONTINUING THROUGH THE CNTRL AND SRN PLAINS. A SURFACE
CYCLONE WILL DEEPEN AND LIFT NEWD THROUGH KS WITHIN UPPER JET EXIT
REGION. STATIONARY FRONT NOW EXTENDS FROM NRN MO SWWD THROUGH KS
INTO NWRN OK. ERN KS PORTION OF FRONT MAY LIFT NWD INTO EXTREME SERN
NEB AS SURFACE LOW DEEPENS OVER CNTRL KS. DRYLINE WILL SHARPEN AND
EXTEND SWD FROM THE LOW THROUGH CNTRL OK AND N-CNTRL TX. PACIFIC
FRONT WILL ADVANCE EWD AND EVENTUALLY MERGE WITH DRYLINE ACROSS ERN
OK...THEN CONTINUE TOWARD THE LOWER MS VALLEY OVERNIGHT.
...KS...ERN OK THROUGH THE LOWER MS VALLEY AREA...
RICH GULF MOISTURE RESIDES ACROSS SRN TX WITH LOW 60S DEWPOINTS AS
FAR NORTH AS CNTRL TX. A SLY LOW LEVEL JET WILL PERSIST FROM
CNTRL-NCNTRL TX AND SHIFT NWD THROUGH ERN OK AND KS IN RESPONSE TO
DEEPENING SURFACE LOW. THIS WILL RESULT IN NWD ADVECTION OF RICHER
MOISTURE WITH LOW 60S DEWPOINTS LIKELY ACROSS CNTRL-ERN OK AND NEAR
60 DEWPOINTS INTO SERN KS. EWD ADVECTING EML PLUME AND COLD
TEMPERATURES ALOFT ACCOMPANYING THE UPPER TROUGH SHOULD YIELD 8-8.5
C/KM 700-500 MB LAPSE RATES ABOVE THE MOISTENING BOUNDARY LAYER.
SOME STRATUS WILL LIKELY DEVELOP EARLY THURSDAY FROM PARTS OF
N-CNTRL TX...OK AND KS IN ASSOCIATION WITH RETURN OF RICHER
MOISTURE. HOWEVER...DIABATIC WARMING IS EXPECTED BY EARLY AFTERNOON
AS LOW CLOUDS MIX OUT...RESULTING IN AXIS OF 2000-2500 J/KG MLCAPE
FROM N-CNTRL TX...ERN HALF OF OK INTO SERN KS WITH MORE LIMITED
INSTABILITY FARTHER NORTH.
ELEVATED STORMS WILL LIKELY BE ONGOING OR DEVELOP EARLY WITHIN ZONE
OF ISENTROPIC LIFT NORTH OF THE FRONT FROM NRN KS INTO NEB. THIS
ACTIVITY COULD POSE A THREAT FOR MARGINALLY SEVERE HAIL. INITIAL
SURFACE BASED STORMS ARE EXPECTED BY EARLY AFTERNOON WITHIN ZONE OF
DEEP ASCENT ASSOCIATED WITH UPPER JET EXIT REGION INTERACTING WITH
OCCLUDED FRONT/DRYLINE ACROSS CNTRL KS. VERTICAL SHEAR WILL SUPPORT
SUPERCELLS WITH LARGE HAIL AND TORNADOES POSSIBLE. OTHER STORMS WILL
LIKELY INITIATE ALONG THE DRYLINE FROM SRN KS...CNTRL-ECNTRL
OK...AND POSSIBLY INTO N-CNTRL TX BY MID-LATE AFTERNOON. THESE
STORMS WILL LIKELY BE DISCRETE SUPERCELLS CAPABLE OF PRODUCING VERY
LARGE HAIL AND TORNADOES. GREATEST TORNADO THREAT IS EXPECTED IN
MODERATE RISK AREA WHERE 0-1 KM HODOGRAPH SIZE WILL INCREASE TOWARD
EVENING WHILE STORMS ARE STILL DISCRETE AND BEFORE THE BOUNDARY
LAYER BEGINS TO DECOUPLE. ADDITIONAL STORMS WILL LIKELY DEVELOP AS
THE FRONT OVERTAKES THE DRYLINE...AND THIS ACTIVITY WILL PROBABLY
BEGIN TO GROW UPSCALE AS IT CONTINUES THROUGH ERN OK INTO THE LOWER
MS VALLEY OVERNIGHT WHERE THE THREAT FOR DAMAGING WIND MAY ALSO
INCREASE.
..DIAL/COHEN.. 04/14/2011
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