SWODY1
SPC AC 021627
DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1127 AM CDT SAT APR 02 2011
VALID 021630Z - 031200Z
...NO SVR TSTM AREAS FORECAST...
...ERN VA AND VICINITY THIS AFTERNOON...
STEEP LAPSE RATES PERSIST OVER THE MID ATLANTIC REGION IN
ASSOCIATION WITH A COLD MIDLEVEL TROUGH AND EMBEDDED SPEED MAXIMA
MOVING ESEWD FROM THE CENTRAL APPALACHIANS. SURFACE HEATING ACROSS
ERN VA/NC WILL RESULT IN CONTINUED DEEPENING OF CONVECTION THROUGH
THE AFTERNOON...AND A FEW LOW-TOPPED THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED BY
EARLY-MID AFTERNOON. THOUGH THE MAGNITUDE OF INSTABILITY WILL BE
LIMITED...COLD PROFILES COULD SUPPORT SMALL HAIL WITH THE STRONGER
UPDRAFTS. ADDITIONALLY...STEEP LOW-LEVEL LAPSE RATES AND 40 KT FLOW
IN THE LOWEST 3 KM AGL COULD SUPPORT A FEW STRONG OUTFLOW GUSTS THIS
AFTERNOON.
...NRN GREAT BASIN THIS AFTERNOON/EVENING...
A PRONOUNCED SHORTWAVE TROUGH OVER WA/ORE WILL PROGRESS ESEWD OVER
THE NRN ROCKIES AND NRN GREAT BASIN THROUGH TONIGHT. THOUGH
LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE IS QUITE LIMITED ACROSS THE NRN GREAT
BASIN...STEEP LAPSE RATES AND MOISTENING MID LEVELS /PER REGIONAL
12Z SOUNDINGS/ WILL RESULT IN INVERTED-V PROFILES WITH WEAK BUOYANCY
BY LATER THIS AFTERNOON. ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE
WITHIN THE BAND OF ASCENT ALONG THE FRONT...WITH THERMODYNAMIC
PROFILES FAVORING SOME RISK FOR STRONG OUTFLOW GUSTS.
...MID-UPPER MS VALLEY EARLY SUNDAY...
STRENGTHENING WAA IS EXPECTED OVERNIGHT ON THE NOSE OF A 60+ KT SWLY
LLJ...DOWNSTREAM FROM AN INITIAL LEE CYCLONE WHICH WILL DEVELOP EWD
ACROSS SD FROM THE NRN HIGH PLAINS. A WARM ELEVATED MIXED LAYER AND
LATE ARRIVAL OF THE RICHER LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE SUGGEST THAT ELEVATED
THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT IS NOT PROBABLE UNTIL NEAR OR AFTER 12Z.
THUS...DESPITE MUCAPE APPROACHING 1000 J/KG AND STRONG EFFECTIVE
BULK SHEAR...WILL NOT ADD ANY HAIL PROBABILITIES IN THIS UPDATE.
..THOMPSON/GRAMS.. 04/02/2011
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