SWODY2
SPC AC 010557
DAY 2 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1257 AM CDT FRI APR 01 2011
VALID 021200Z - 031200Z
...NO SVR TSTM AREAS FORECAST...
...SYNOPSIS...
A PROGRESSIVE AND AMPLIFIED MID-UPPER LEVEL FLOW PATTERN WILL
PREVAIL ACROSS THE CONUS FROM DAY 1 INTO DAY 2. A LONGWAVE
TROUGH...CURRENTLY LOCATED ACROSS THE ERN HALF OF THE U.S. IS
EXPECTED TO EXIT THE ERN SEABOARD. MEANWHILE...A NERN PACIFIC
SHORTWAVE TROUGH WILL AMPLIFY AS IT MOVES FARTHER INLAND ACROSS THE
WRN STATES ON SATURDAY. BETWEEN THESE TWO TROUGHS...HEIGHTS WILL
RISE AS A RIDGE SHIFTS EWD FROM THE ROCKIES INTO THE CENTRAL STATES.
IN THE LOW LEVELS...SURFACE CYCLOGENESIS OVER THE NRN HIGH PLAINS
WILL DEVELOP SEWD INTO THE CENTRAL PLAINS BY 12Z SUNDAY. AT 12Z
SATURDAY...A FRONT WILL EXTEND SEWD FROM THE NRN HIGH PLAINS TO NWRN
KS...AND THEN ESEWD THROUGH NRN KS TO SRN MO AND THE TN VALLEY.
MUCH OF THIS BOUNDARY WILL TEND TO REMAIN QUASISTATIONARY THROUGH
DAY 2...WHILE THE WRN EXTENT MOVES NWD INTO CENTRAL NEB/SD BY 12Z
SUNDAY. IN THE WEST...A COLD FRONT WILL SPREAD ACROSS THE NRN
INTERMOUNTAIN WEST AND SEWD INTO THE GREAT BASIN ATTENDANT TO THE
WRN U.S. TROUGH.
...MO/IA...
A STRONG ELEVATED MIXED LAYER/STEEP MIDLEVEL LAPSE RATES WILL SPREAD
EWD ACROSS THE CENTRAL/SRN PLAINS SATURDAY AS THE RIDGE SHIFTS
ACROSS THIS REGION. THIS WILL EFFECTIVELY CAP THE WARM SECTOR
THROUGH THE DAY...WITH CONVECTION/EMBEDDED ELEVATED TSTMS NOT
EXPECTED UNTIL SATURDAY NIGHT ACROSS MO/IA WITHIN INCREASING LOW
LEVEL WAA REGIME. A SSWLY LLJ IS EXPECTED TO STRENGTHEN ACROSS THE
FULL EXTENT OF THE PLAINS SATURDAY EVENING/OVERNIGHT WITH A SECOND
BRANCH EXTENDING FROM ERN OK INTO SERN MO. THE GREATEST LOW LEVEL
MOISTENING/WAA ALONG THE ERN EXTENT OF THE EML IS FORECAST FROM
ERN/NRN MO TO CENTRAL IA AS THE LLJ VEERS AND UNDERGOES FURTHER
STRENGTHENING /50-60 KT/. ACROSS THESE AREAS...ELEVATED TSTMS WILL
BE POSSIBLE /ROOTED WITHIN THE 850-700 MB LAYER/. THE AVAILABLE
THERMODYNAMICS...MUCAPE UP TO 1000-1500 J/KG...AND EFFECTIVE BULK
SHEAR TO 50 KT SHOULD SUPPORT SEVERE HAIL. GIVEN THIS SEVERE THREAT
IS EXPECTED TO OCCUR DURING THE LAST 6 HOURS OF THE FORECAST PERIOD
/AFTER 03/06Z/... THE OVERALL COVERAGE OF THE SEVERE THREAT TENDS TO
PRECLUDE THE NEED FOR HIGH PROBABILITIES AND INTRODUCTION OF A
CATEGORICAL RISK.
...PART OF THE UPPER OH VALLEY TO MID ATLANTIC STATES...
A FEW LOW TOPPED TSTMS WILL BE POSSIBLE ACROSS THIS CORRIDOR ON
SATURDAY. VERY COLD MIDLEVEL TEMPERATURES /-32 TO -34 C AT 500 MB/
WILL MAINTAIN STEEP LAPSE RATES WITH EQUILIBRIUM TEMPERATURES COLD
ENOUGH FOR LIGHTNING PRODUCTION.
..PETERS.. 04/01/2011
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