SWODY3
SPC AC 180725
DAY 3 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0225 AM CDT MON APR 18 2011
VALID 201200Z - 211200Z
...SYNOPSIS...
AFTER WHAT IS ANTICIPATED TO BE AN ACTIVE SEVERE WEATHER DAY ON
TUESDAY/DAY 2...THE GREAT LAKES UPPER TROUGH EARLY WEDNESDAY IS
EXPECTED TO CONTINUE TO STEADILY PROGRESS NORTHEASTWARD OVER
ONTARIO/QUEBEC AND THE ADJACENT NORTHEAST STATES THROUGH WEDNESDAY
NIGHT. WHILE SHORTWAVE RIDGING OCCURS OVER THE PLAINS...HEIGHT FALLS
ARE EXPECTED ACROSS THE WESTERN STATES BY WEDNESDAY NIGHT AS AN
UPPER TROUGH BEGINS TO AMPLIFY ALONG THE WEST COAST.
...NORTHEAST/MID ATLANTIC STATES TO CENTRAL/SOUTHERN APPALACHIANS
AND TN VALLEY/SOUTHEAST STATES...
AN EARLY DAY ISOLATED SEVERE THREAT /MAINLY DAMAGING WINDS/ COULD
STILL BE ONGOING EARLY WEDNESDAY ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE UPPER OH/TN
RIVER VALLEYS TOWARD THE SPINE OF THE APPALACHIANS. THE
EXTENSIVENESS/TIMING OF SUCH CONVECTION ALONG/AHEAD OF THE EASTWARD
ADVANCING COLD FRONT PROVIDES UNCERTAINTY REGARDING THE
LIKELIHOOD/COVERAGE OF A SEVERE THREAT INTO WEDNESDAY.
NONETHELESS...A SEVERE THREAT COULD REDEVELOP/INCREASE BY WEDNESDAY
AFTERNOON TOWARD/EAST OF THE APPALACHIANS INTO THE NORTHEAST
STATES/PERHAPS MID-ATLANTIC REGION ALONG/AHEAD OF THE COLD
FRONT...WITH DAMAGING WINDS AS THE PRIMARY CONCERN. WHILE
UNCERTAINTY EXISTS REGARDING THE DEGREE OF DESTABILIZATION COLOCATED
WITH THE BRUNT OF LARGE SCALE FORCING/UPPER JET...IT IS POSSIBLE
THAT PORTIONS OF THE NORTHEAST STATES MAY WARRANT A SLIGHT RISK IN
SUBSEQUENT OUTLOOKS.
FARTHER SOUTHWEST ALONG THE SOUTHEAST ADVANCING COLD FRONT INTO THE
SOUTHERN APPALACHIANS/TN VALLEY/SOUTHEAST STATES...LARGE SCALE
FORCING IS EXPECTED TO BE CONSIDERABLY MORE LIMITED WITH WEAKENING
MASS CONVERGENCE DURING THE DAY. HOWEVER...THE ADVANCING COLD
FRONT/PERHAPS REMNANT COLD POOLS COULD FOCUS ADDITIONAL
STRONG/SEVERE TSTM DEVELOPMENT DURING THE DAY...AT LEAST IN AN
ISOLATED/EPISODIC SENSE.
...SOUTHERN PLAINS/ARKLATEX/OZARKS WEDNESDAY NIGHT...
ANTICIPATED LATE PERIOD HEIGHT FALLS OVER THE SOUTHERN ROCKIES TO
THE HIGH PLAINS WILL BEGIN TO INFLUENCE THE GRADUAL NORTHWARD RETURN
OF THE PREVIOUSLY STALLED FRONTAL BOUNDARY/ASSOCIATED MOIST SECTOR
ACROSS THE SOUTHERN PLAINS/ARKLATEX REGION LATE WEDNESDAY INTO
THURSDAY. A NOCTURNALLY INCREASING LOW LEVEL JET/ASSOCIATED WARM
ADVECTION REGIME COULD SUPPORT ELEVATED TSTMS ACROSS THE REGION
WEDNESDAY NIGHT...ALTHOUGH SPECIFIC AREAL/PROBABILISTIC DETAILS ARE
CURRENTLY LIMITED. SOME HAIL MAY BE POSSIBLE LATE WEDNESDAY NIGHT
ACROSS THE REGION...BUT THIS SCENARIO APPEARS TOO MARGINAL/UNCERTAIN
FOR CONSIDERATION OF SEVERE PROBABILITIES AT THIS TIME.
..GUYER.. 04/18/2011
+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-
To unsubscribe from WX-STORM send e-mail to LISTSERV@LISTSERV.ILLINOIS.EDU with
"unsub wx-storm" in the body of your message. For more information write cnovy@cox.net.
No comments:
Post a Comment